基于不同收敛交叉映射算法的土地利用变化对环境热舒适度的时空响应因果分析
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国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFF1301302);福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2022J05096)


Spatiotemporal causal analysis of land use change impacts on environmental thermal comfort using convergent cross-mapping algorithms
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    摘要:

    城市化不仅导致城市区域气温上升, 还会改变城市内部的微气候条件, 从而影响人体的热舒适度和身心健康。目前的研究多集中于城市化与温度之间的关联分析, 对热舒适度这一更为综合的指标的因果关系探讨尚显不足。同时, 不同土地利用类型对热舒适度的影响呈现复杂的时空异质性, 使得在大范围、长时间尺度上进行系统分析具有较大挑战。多空间收敛交叉映射方法通过重构多个空间单元的时间序列识别非线性因果关系, 而地理收敛交叉映射方法结合地理邻接特征, 能进一步提高空间因果推断的稳定性和可靠性。结合多空间收敛交叉映射和地理收敛交叉映射算法, 系统分析了2005至2022年间福建省不同规模建成区以及2022年不同区域中各类土地利用类型与热舒适度之间的因果关系。研究结果显示, 建设用地扩张与热舒适度在中小和中等级别建成区呈显著正向因果关系(P值分别为0.037和0.015), 且其负面影响更为突出;在大规模建成区, 裸地通常会加剧热负荷, 而农田的影响因区域特征不同而存在差异;森林覆盖对改善热舒适度的作用最强, 草地、灌木和水体对热舒适度的调节作用较弱, 其效果在不同区域间存在差异, 有时甚至产生不利影响。研究建议根据建成区的规模, 合理增加森林、草地和灌木覆盖, 并优化水体配置, 以提升城市热舒适度。这一成果为基于热舒适优化的城市规划与环境管理提供了科学依据, 具有重要的理论和实践意义。

    Abstract:

    Urbanization leads not only to rising temperatures in urban areas but also to dramatic alterations in local microclimatic conditions, which in turn affect human thermal comfort, a crucial factor for health and wellbeing. Although past research has predominantly focused on the correlation between urbanization and ambient temperature, few studies have explored the causal mechanisms of thermal comfort—a more comprehensive and integrated indicator—across varying urban contexts. This gap in the literature is particularly significant as the influence of urban form and land use on thermal comfort is characterized by complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Such complexity presents a formidable challenge when attempting to conduct systematic, large-scale, and long-term analyses. To address these challenges, this study adopts innovative analytical methods that incorporate both spatial diversity and temporal dynamics. Specifically, it integrates Multispatial Convergent Cross Mapping (multispatialCCM) and Geographical Convergent Cross Mapping (GCCM) to identify and quantify the nonlinear causal relationships between different types of land use and urban thermal comfort. The multispatialCCM approach utilizes the reconstruction of time series data from various spatial units, which allows for the detection of hidden causal links that standard correlation analyses might miss. Meanwhile, the GCCM method enhances this analytical framework by incorporating geographical adjacency characteristics, thereby increasing the robustness and reliability of the spatial causal inferences drawn from the data. The study focuses on Fujian Province, examining different scales of built-up areas over an extended period from 2005 to 2022, with an additional focus on varied regional contexts in 2022. The analysis reveals that in small-to-medium and medium-built-up areas, there is a significantly positive causal relationship between the expansion of construction land and thermal comfort degradation, with P-values of 0.037 and 0.015 respectively, indicating the statistical significance of these effects. Notably, the adverse impacts of such expansion are even more pronounced in these urban scales. In contrast, within large-scale built-up areas, the presence of bare land is found to exacerbate heat stress, whereas the influence of farmland is not uniform and depends substantially on regional characteristics and local environmental contexts. Moreover, the study highlights that forest cover exhibits the most substantial beneficial effect on improving urban thermal comfort. In comparison, while grasslands, shrubs, and water bodies do contribute to thermal regulation, their effects are generally weaker and subject to variability across different regions; in some cases, these land use types might even have unfavorable outcomes under specific environmental conditions. Based on these findings, the research advocates for urban planning strategies that are tailored to the specific scales of built-up areas. It recommends an increase in forest, grassland, and shrub coverage, alongside an optimized configuration of water bodies, to mitigate the negative impacts of urban heat and to promote more balanced urban microclimates. Overall, this research provides robust scientific evidence for integrating thermal comfort considerations into urban planning and environmental management. The adoption of advanced causal inference methods such as multispatialCCM and GCCM not only deepens our understanding of the complex interplay between land use and thermal comfort but also offers critical theoretical and practical insights for developing sustainable urban environments in the context of ongoing urbanization challenges.

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唐立娜,梁枫迪,颜金珊,何秋琴,王宁,杨晨,张雨辰,郑欣雨,王琳.基于不同收敛交叉映射算法的土地利用变化对环境热舒适度的时空响应因果分析.生态学报,2025,45(12):5619~5636

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