京津冀旱涝急转事件特征分析及风险评估
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国家"十三五"重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401406);企业委托项目-基于双碳目标的水安全评估及水光风储多能互补优化调度研究(2023-145)


Characterization and risk assessment of drought-flood abrupt alternation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China
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    摘要:

    近年来随着气温升高,旱涝急转事件在全球范围内发展迅速,京津冀作为我国第三大城市群及重要粮食产地,受旱涝急转影响尤其突出,刻画其时空特征并进行灾害风险评估对事件防控具有重要意义。基于水文时空演变研究方法与灾害风险体系,结合旋转经验正交函数(REOF)、基尼系数等方法,刻画了旱涝急转事件的特征,分析了演变趋势,评估了风险程度。结果表明:(1)旱涝急转事件强度在历史时期多时间尺度下均呈现出显著上升趋势,区域受旱涝急转事件威胁增加。(2)旱涝急转事件呈夏、秋高,春、冬低的季节变化特征,年内事件热点区域由西部向东部转移。(3)旱涝急转灾害风险在石家庄市和沧州市较高,在太行-燕山山脉一带较低,总体呈北高南低、东高西低的空间分布特征,其中,旱转涝的灾害风险高于涝转旱的灾害风险。(4)旱涝急转灾害各要素及风险分布处于比较均衡-相对均衡状态,但均存在少数人口承受异常高值的现象。研究明晰了京津冀地区旱涝急转事件的发展规律,为旱涝急转灾害预防及风险规避提供了参考。

    Abstract:

    In recent years, there has been a notable increase in the frequency of drought-flood abrupt alteration events at the global scale, coinciding with a rise in temperature. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the third largest urban agglomeration and an important food production area in China, is particularly susceptible to the impacts of drought-flood abrupt alternation events. It is of great significance to characterize the spatial and temporal features of the event and assess the risk of disaster in order to prevent and control the event. In this paper, we employ a hydrological spatio-temporal evolution research method and disaster risk system, in conjunction with the Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) method, Gini coefficient, and other analytical techniques, a complete system for analyzing the characteristics of rapid transition from drought to flood events and assessing their disaster risks was constructed and applied to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The characteristics of rapid transition from drought to flood events in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were depicted, the evolution trend of such events was analyzed, and the risk level of rapid transition from drought to flood events was evaluated, providing a scientific basis for the high-quality development of the region and the prevention of rapid transition from drought to flood disasters. The findings indicate that: (1) The intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation events exhibits a notable upward trajectory across multiple temporal scales in the historical period, underscoring the heightened risk of drought and flood emergencies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. (2) The seasonal distribution of drought-flood abrupt alternation events exhibits a high level during the summer and autumn months and a low level during the spring and winter. Additionally, the geographic focus of these events has shifted from the west to the east over the course of the year. (3) The risk of drought-flood abrupt alternation is higher in Shijiazhuang City and Cangzhou City, and lower along the Taihang-Yanshan Mountain Range. The overall spatial distribution characteristics of this phenomenon are as follows: high in the north and low in the south, and high in the east and low in the west. Among them, the disaster risk associated with the transition from drought to flood is greater than that from flood to drought. (4) The distribution of the elements and risks of drought-flood abrupt alternation is relatively balanced, although some populations experience abnormally high values. This study elucidates the development pattern of drought-flood abrupt alternation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, thereby providing a reference for drought-flood abrupt alternation disaster prevention and risk avoidance.

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门宝辉,李国娇,吕行,伍兴涛,庞金凤.京津冀旱涝急转事件特征分析及风险评估.生态学报,2025,45(11):5351~5362

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