Extensive research has been conducted on low-carbon neighborhood construction; however, most studies primarily focus on the application of low-carbon technologies in newly built neighborhoods. Relatively few studies have examined variations in residents' willingness to pay for low-carbon renewal in existing neighborhoods or the underlying driving mechanisms across different neighborhood types. This study addresses this gap by investigating the willingness to pay for low-carbon renewal and identifying key factors influencing residents' preferences across different neighborhood types. The analysis is based on 765 valid questionnaires collected from 35 neighborhoods in the central area of Nanjing, China, utilizing a discrete choice model in combination with the XGBoost algorithm. The findings indicate that neighborhood type plays a significant role in shaping residents' willingness to pay for low-carbon renewal. Specifically, residents of traditional neighborhoods and urban villages exhibit a lower willingness to pay, primarily focusing on upgrading building maintenance structures. In contrast, residents of conventional commodity housing demonstrate a higher willingness to pay, prioritizing improvements to windows and doors, as well as air conditioning systems. Notably, residents of green commodity neighborhoods display the highest willingness to pay, emphasizing investments in wall insulation, clean energy facilities, and neighborhood-level renewals. Socio-economic characteristics play a crucial role in influencing residents' willingness to pay for low-carbon renewal. Family annual income is positively correlated with willingness to pay, exhibiting a significant increase when income surpasses 300,000 yuan. Satisfaction with the living environment demonstrates a polarization effect, residents who express either high or low levels of satisfaction tend to exhibit stronger willingness to pay. Sufficient social environmental responsibility and knowledge of carbon metabolism and knowledge of low-carbon technologies consistently enhances the willingness to pay. In terms of rental status, owner-occupiers display significantly higher willingness to pay compared to renters. Additionally, an increasing number of family members and elevated energy consumption further contribute positively to willingness to pay. Residents who have resided in their neighborhood for less than 20 years or more than 40 years show markedly higher willingness to pay. Furthermore, there exists a positive correlation between age and willingness to pay. Education level also reveals a nonlinear relationship with willingness to pay, individuals possessing a college degree demonstrate substantially greater willingness to pay compared to those holding only a senior high school diploma or lower educational qualifications. This study offers valuable insights for developing adaptive and refined strategies for neighborhood low-carbon renewal, ultimately contributing to a more effective, bottom-up approach for low-carbon neighborhood construction.