As a serious area of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau, the land use and land cover change (LUCC) in loess gully area has an important impact on soil and water conservation and ecological restoration. Taking the Sanchuan River Basin in west Shanxi province as an example, t using the SWAT and PLUS models, a total of 70 LUCC scenarios in three categories, including extreme land use in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the basin, land use in the buffer zone of the gully and river valley, and different forms of ecological land use in the future, were set up from the macroscopic perspective of the landscape pattern, to simulate the response of the basin's runoff under the multiple scenarios, and to propose the adaptive spatial planning countermeasures. It was found that the upstream area is characterized by forested land as the main land use, which can effectively reduce surface runoff and improve soil and water conservation capacity. In contrast, the type of land use in the downstream area has less influence on the role of watershed yielding sinks. The influence of buffer width changes along the river on watershed yield and sink flow is obviously characterized by scale, of which the 400m and 900m ranges along the river, are important scale ranges. In addition, the distribution pattern of ecological land use has obvious differences in runoff control effects, and the annual runoff volume is lower in the linear distribution scenario, which shows better control effects. Based on this, we propose to construct a rainfall safety pattern in the watershed at three scales of "watershed space-valley space-ecological infrastructure", aiming at shaping the ecological safety pattern of the watershed and improving the capacity of sustainable development in the region. This study provides scientific basis and practical guidance for the harmonization of soil and water conservation, ecological protection and socio-economic development in loess gully areas.