机器学习在量化滨海蓝碳储量研究中的应用进展
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国家自然科学基金项目(32171853)


Progress in machine learning for quantifying coastal blue carbon
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    摘要:

    科学量化滨海蓝碳生态系统(红树林、盐沼和海草床)碳汇能力是制定基于自然解决方案缓解全球气候变化措施的基础和前提。近年来多源遥感数据与机器学习技术的结合应用领域日益广泛,然而缺乏对滨海蓝碳量化方法和技术体系的比较与系统评述。梳理了近五年多源遥感数据结合机器学习在蓝碳储量量化研究中的应用现状,在归纳总结量化蓝碳的分类与预测路径基础上,分析了不同遥感数据和机器学习算法的适用性,聚焦分类与预测路径的模型表现及量化指标。结果表明,分类与预测途径难以完全替代彼此,分类路径适用于缺乏足够碳储量数据情形下快速量化蓝碳实现空间化,而预测路径适用于精确量化碳储量的连续变量值,在未来需发展"先分类、再预测"整合路径以提高结果精度与研究效率;提出考虑气候变化、人类活动干预以及自然生态系统动态等多重因素,发展蓝碳时空动态监测体系,以支持滨海生态系统的可持续管理,为实现可持续发展目标提供科学支撑。

    Abstract:

    Accurately quantifying the carbon sequestration capacity of coastal blue carbon ecosystems (mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass beds) is essential for developing nature-based solutions to mitigate global climate change. These ecosystems act as significant carbon sinks, yet traditional field-based assessments are often labor-intensive, time-consuming, and spatially limited. In recent years, the integration of multi-source remote sensing data with machine learning (ML) techniques has gained increasing attention, offering new possibilities for large-scale, high-resolution blue carbon quantification. However, there are limited reviews focusing on machine learning algorithms for quantifying blue carbon and the types of remote sensing data sources that can be used presenting a need for a systematic summary of pathways for applying multi-source data and machine learning algorithms to blue carbon ecosystems. This study systematically reviews the applications of machine learning in coastal blue carbon quantification from the recent five years, focusing on the utilization of classification and prediction frameworks. Utilizing multi-source datasets-including satellite, airborne, and drone-based sensors-these frameworks harness the strengths of various machine learning algorithms. Classification methods, such as Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and deep learning models, are primarily employed for mapping vegetation types and assessing spatial distributions. Prediction models, such as XGBoost, CatBoost, and Cubist, estimate carbon stocks as continuous variables by incorporating spectral, structural, and environmental features. Each approach presents distinct advantages-classification excels in large-scale ecosystem mapping, while prediction models provide high-accuracy stock assessments when reliable and sufficient training data is available. Combining these methods in a "classification-first, then prediction" framework enhances both spatial and quantitative precision. Despite significant progress, challenges persist in feature selection, data heterogeneity, and the interpretability of machine learning outputs, limiting model accuracy and applicability. Spectral signature variability, particularly in distinguishing similar vegetation types, and radiative saturation in dense biomass areas like mangrove forests introduce classification errors. The integration of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), LiDAR, and hyperspectral imaging can mitigate these limitations by improving structural and biochemical feature extraction. Additionally, underwater remote sensing technologies such as autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) with optical sensors offer promising solutions for monitoring submerged seagrass meadows. Advancements in hybrid machine learning models and explainable artificial intelligence (AI) techniques can further enhance model reliability, ensuring more accurate and interpretable blue carbon quantification. As AI and remote sensing continue to evolve, their synergy presents new opportunities for refining carbon accounting methodologies and informing climate policy. Strengthening interdisciplinary collaboration between ecologists, data scientists, and policymakers will accelerate progress in this field, ensuring that machine learning-driven approaches contribute meaningfully to global carbon neutrality efforts.

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康濒月,李佳旭,宁园力,李洪远.机器学习在量化滨海蓝碳储量研究中的应用进展.生态学报,2025,45(10):5075~5089

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