耕地水产养殖非粮化时空特征及其影响因素——基于GTWR的实证
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教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(23YJCZH054);国家自然科学基金(42401310)


Spatial characteristics and influencing factors of non-grain conversion of cropland to aquaculture: evidence based on GTWR
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MOE (Ministry of Education in China) Project of Humanities and Social Sciences (Project No.23YJCZH054),The National Natural Science Foundation of China (42401310)

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    摘要:

    粮食安全是国之大计,是经济和社会稳定发展的前提。防止过度非粮化是近年耕地保护和农业发展的重要策略及挑战。基于遥感影像对水产养殖非粮化斑块进行识别,采用空间自相关等方法建构中国县级水产养殖非粮化空间格局,从农业区、粮食分区、省级行政区等多维度分析非粮化时空演化差异,采用GTWR模型探索水产养殖非粮化的影响因素。研究发现:①近25年来,全国耕地水产养殖非粮化现象显著,总体趋势为先上升后下降。②非粮化在110°E-120°E和20°N-30°N最为集中,东北、长江中下游、珠三角地区有较为显著的集聚区,其中长江中下游集聚区涉及的县市最多,范围最广。③从农业区尺度来看,长江中下游干流平原丘陵区的水产养殖非粮化在20年来持续处于较高水平;粮食主产区的非粮化现象显著,25年来持续增长,到2015-2020年期间,占比达到80.2%;江苏省、湖北省、广东省和安徽省的水产养殖非粮化情况较为严重。④水产养殖非粮化受到自然因素、社会经济因素、耕地及农业发展情况和淡水养殖状况4个方面影响。高程为负向影响,人口、财政收支比的提升在全国大部分县市都对非粮化有促进作用,耕地面积为正相关。耕地非农化在东部和西部大部分地区为正影响,淡水养殖产量的增加会促进非粮化现象的产生。

    Abstract:

    Food security is a critical national strategy and an essential foundation for the stable economic and social development of China. Curbing the excessive expansion of non-grain production is a key strategy and presents challenges to the preservation of arable land and the progress of agricultural development. This study detects the conversion of cropland to non-grain aquaculture using remote sensing imagery, applies the spatial autocorrelation technique to analyze the county-level spatial distribution of non-grain aquaculture across China, and explores the spatiotemporal dynamics of non-grain conversion across various scopes, such as agricultural regions, grain-producing zones, and provincial administrative divisions. Subsequently, the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model is utilized to explore the factors influencing non-grain conversions. The study reveals several findings: ① Over the past 25 years, there has been a nationwide conversion of arable land to aquaculture, showing an initial surge followed by a subsequent decline in the general trend. ② Non-grain conversions are predominantly concentrated in 110°E-120°E longitudes and 20°N-30°N latitudes, with significant clusters observed in Northeast China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the Pearl River Delta. Notably, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have the highest number of counties with such clusters. ③ From the perspective of agricultural zones, the non-grain transformation to aquaculture in the plain and hilly areas of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has remained at a high level for the past 20 years. In the main grain-producing areas, non-grain conversion has been substantial and continuously grown over the past 25 years, reaching a proportion of 80.2% from 2005 to 2020. The most significant conversions have occurred in Jiangsu, Hubei, Guangdong, and Anhui Provinces. ④ The non-grain transformation to aquaculture is affected by four main factors: natural elements, socioeconomic conditions, the state of cultivated land and agricultural development, and freshwater aquaculture conditions. Elevation has a negative effect, while population growth and the fiscal revenue-expenditure ratio generally promote non-grain conversion in most counties. The area of cultivated land correlates positively with this conversion. Additionally, the non-agricultural use of cultivated land positively impacts most counties in Eastern and Western China, and an increase in freshwater aquaculture production is likely to encourage the non-grain conversion of cropland.

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高原,田莉,黄安,崔雨桐.耕地水产养殖非粮化时空特征及其影响因素——基于GTWR的实证.生态学报,2025,45(7):3125~3141

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