To provide a basis for the formulation of future development plans and related policies for rice, this study quantified the sources of differences in the results of rice yield prediction under future climate change in China. A meta analysis was conducted, retrieving and screening a total of 42 relevant studies published since 2000, with a total of 1129 samples. The rate of change in rice yield was used as the dependent variable, and the independent variables that led to differences in rice yield predictions were statistically integrated. Regression analysis was employed to clarify the effects of future climate prediction, CO2 fertilization effect, spatial-temporal distribution of climate change and meteorological factors on rice yield. The results showed that: (1) Climate scenarios and climate models for future climate predictions significantly influenced rice yields. The high-emission A2 climate scenario produced the lowest rice yield prediction, while the low-emission RCP 2.6 climate scenario was the most suitable for future rice yield, with a 5.6% higher yield prediction than that of the A2. The rice yield simulated by the PRECIS model was 4.1% higher than that of other climate models. (2) The CO2 fertilization effect had a positive impact on rice yields. Predictions that considered the CO2 fertilization effect indicated a yield increase of 15.0% compared to predictions without this effect. (3) There were temporal and spatial differences in rice yield prediction under future climate change. Temporally, middle-season rice yields were 2.8% higher than early-season rice. Spatially, significant differences were observed in rice yield predictions across different cropping regions. Compared to rice yield in national region, Northeast China early maturing and single rice cropping region had a 11.6% yield increase, while Central China double and single rice cropping region experienced a 10.3% yield decrease. (4) Changes in meteorological factors, including temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, significantly influenced rice yield. According to the data analysis of existing meteorological factors, a 1 ℃ increase in temperature was associated with a 5.8% decrease in rice yield. Additionally, a 1% increase in precipitation and solar radiation was associated with a 0.7% and 0.9% increase in rice yield, respectively. This study suggests that future rice development in China should be further explored in terms of low-emission climate scenarios, the CO2 fertilization effect, natural resources during the growth period of middle-season rice, and the ecological environment of Northeast China early maturing and single rice cropping region, to optimize variables that positively impact rice yield