基于源汇景观格局的洞庭湖流域洪涝风险评估及雨洪径流过程响应
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国家自然科学基金(52278059);湖南省自然科学基金部门联合项目(2024JJ8316)


Flood risk assessment and stormwater runoff process response in Dongting Lake Basin based on source-sink landscape pattern
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The National Natural Science Foundation General Program of China (52278059);The Natural Science Foundation Sector Joint Program of Hunan Province(2024JJ8316)

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    摘要:

    源汇景观格局是影响流域雨洪径流过程与洪涝风险的重要因素,探索一种基于源汇景观格局的流域洪涝风险评估方法对流域洪涝风险防治具有重要科学意义。以洞庭湖流域为研究对象,创新性地修正并运用源汇景观模型评估各年份流域洪涝风险,揭示洪涝风险时空演变规律及成因;而后利用SCS-CN模型与局部等体积法模拟分析各年份雨洪径流过程特征,并基于斯皮尔曼相关系数探究雨洪径流过程与源汇景观空间负荷对比指数的相关关系,以此验证新模型运用于洪涝风险评估的合理性。结果表明:(1)40年间源景观建设用地的扩张最为显著,汇景观持续减少,以耕地向建设用地转移为主,源景观空间上集中于环洞庭湖与湘江流域。(2)40年间源汇景观空间负荷对比指数均呈上升趋势,流域洪涝风险逐渐提高,呈现东高西低的分布格局,其中湘江与环洞庭湖流域洪涝风险较高,资水流域洪涝风险次之,澧水与沅水流域洪涝风险较低。(3)40年间平均径流量、淹没深度及各风险区占比整体呈缓慢波动上升趋势,雨洪径流过程加剧使得洪涝风险不断上升,传统模型模拟结果与源汇景观模型评估结果相吻合。(4)源汇景观空间负荷对比指数与雨洪径流过程各特征指标呈显著正相关关系,说明源汇景观在高程、坡度及距离上的空间格局对于雨洪径流过程具有重要影响,运用源汇景观模型评估流域洪涝风险具有可行性。本研究可为流域洪涝风险定量评估提供耦合格局与过程的新方法,为合理配置流域景观格局、保障雨洪安全提供新视角和理论依据。

    Abstract:

    Source-sink landscape pattern is an important factor affecting the stormwater runoff process and flood risk in the watershed. Exploring a flood risk assessment method based on the source-sink landscape pattern is of great scientific significance for watershed flood risk prevention and control. Taking Dongting Lake Basin as an example, this study innovatively revised and applied the source-sink landscape model to assess the flood risk of the watershed every year, revealed the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of flood risk and causes. It was followed by using the SCS-CN model and the local isovolumetric method to simulate and analyze the characteristics of the stormwater runoff process every year. Then the Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to explore the correlation between the stormwater runoff process and the Location-Weighted Landscape Index (LWLI), in order to verify the rationality of using the new model in flood risk assessment. The results showed that (1) During a 40 years' timeframe, the expansion of construction land for source landscape was the most significant, while the sink landscape continued to decrease, with the main shift being from cultivated land to construction land. Source landscapes were spatially concentrated around Dongting Lake and the Xiangjiang River watershed. (2) The LWLI showed a rising trend during the 40-year period and a gradual increase of flood risk. This demonstrated a distribution pattern with high in the east and low in the west. Among them both the Xiangjiang River Basin and the Dongting Lake Zone showed a higher flood risk, followed by the Zi Basin. And the Li River and the Yuan River Basin had a lower flood risk. (3)The average runoff volume, the depth of inundation, and the percentage of each risk area during the 40-year period showed a slow fluctuating upward trend. The intensification of stormwater runoff process made the flood risk increase continuously. The results of the traditional model simulation coincided with the assessment results of the source-sink landscape model. (4) The LWLI and subindexes showed a significant positive correlation with each characteristic index of the stormwater runoff process, indicating that the pattern of the source-sink landscape in terms of elevation, slope and distance had an important influence on stormwater runoff process, and that it was feasible to assess the flood risk of the watershed by using the source-sink landscape model. This study could provide a new method of coupling pattern and process to quantify and analyze the flood risk in the watershed. It offered a new perspective and theoretical basis to rationally allocate the landscape pattern in the watershed and to protect the stormwater safety.

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张凌暄,焦胜,卢洁,牛彦合.基于源汇景观格局的洞庭湖流域洪涝风险评估及雨洪径流过程响应.生态学报,2025,45(1):395~405

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