Abstract:The ecological environment of the Mu Us Sandy Land has seen significant improvement thanks to the Grain for Green Project. However, excessive dense planting has strained groundwater resources to their carrying capacity, leading to vegetation degradation in certain areas. To explore the dynamic patterns and driving mechanisms of vegetation changes in this region, this study utilized MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), land use, and meteorological data, applying methods like trend and mutation analysis, Hurst index, and partial correlation analysis. These approaches aimed to clarify the vegetation change patterns and their responses to climate change during the oasification process in the Mu Us Sandy Land, while also revealing the impacts of land use changes driven by human activities on this process. The key findings include: (1) From 2000 to 2022, vegetation during the growing season improved significantly, with NDVI showing notable increases in more than 76% of the area. (2) Grassland remains the dominant land cover in the region, but trend and mutation analyses revealed that the growth rate of NDVI slowed after 2009, indicating a potential risk of future grassland degradation. (3) Vegetation responses to climatic factors during the growing season exhibited a lag of 0-2 months, with warming and humidifying climate conditions and precipitation distribution identified as critical drivers of vegetation growth and spatial differentiation, while low temperature partially inhibited growth across vegetation types. (4) Ecological restoration projects have effectively preserved grasslands, converting approximately 2.25% of bare land into grassland, although about 0.73% of grassland has been transformed into farmland. This study offers a comprehensive analysis of vegetation change patterns under oasification and underscores the influence mechanisms of climate change and human-driven land use changes. The findings offer valuable data support for developing vegetation restoration strategies in the Mu Us Sandy Land.