Abstract:Malus sieversii (Ledeb.) M. Roem., a tertiary relict species, is the ancestor of modern cultivated apples. It is also a second-class key protected wild plant in China, only distributed in Ili and Tacheng Prefecture of Xinjiang in China. In the past decade, its distribution area, the number of populations and individuals has been decreasing. In order to comprehensively understand the survival status of M. sieversii in the whole distribution range of China, its community species composition, population structure and dynamic characteristics, a field investigation on the natural population of M. sieversii distributed in different sites of Ili and Tacheng was conducted. The "space instead of time" theory was used to compile a time-specific life table of M. sieversii, and its population survival curve and death curve were drawn. The survival analysis theory was used to analyze the dynamic changes of the population. Time series models were used to predict population trends. The results showed that: 1) M. sieversii mainly grew in four habitats (steep slope, valley, flood plain and gentle slope grassland) at an altitude of 870-1576 m. Among the four habitats, the flood plain had the highest species richness and vegetation coverage, reaching 70%-80%. In this habitat, M. sieversii coexisted with other species such as Armeniaca vulgaris, Crataegus pinnatifida, Lonicera tatarica and Spiraea salicifolia. while in other three habitats, M. sieversii mostly exists in pure forest. 2) The Ili population has serious pests and diseases, with a mortality rate of 7%, and a dry and dead branch rate of 85%-90%. The population of Tacheng is almost free of diseases and pests, with a mortality rate of only 2% and the dry and dead branch rate of only 2%-5%. 3) The population of Ili showed a declining pattern with few young individuals especially seedlings and a declinging trend dynamic multiple growth and development stages. Severe pests and diseases, overgrazing, and harvesting of forage are the main factors causing population decline. The population of Tacheng showed a growing pattern with sufficient young individuals especially seedlings. But there are huge difficulties in successfully transition from seedlings to young trees and young trees to small trees. The population in different sites in Tacheng faces different problems. 4) After the next 2nd, 3rd and 4th age classes, both Ili and Tacheng populations showed a trend of decreasing of young individuals and increasing of elderly trees, and the population declining trend was obvious. Based on the analyses of the current situation and existing problems of M. sieversii, combined with field investigations, the following suggestions are proposed: 1) For the Ili population, biological control and other technologies should be applied first to strictly control the continued spread and aggravation of diseases and pests; Secondly, the establishment of a national or provincial-level Nature Reserve of M. sieversii and the division of priority and minimum protection units in the reserve should be considered to alleviate the long-standing forest pastoral conflict. 2) For the Tacheng population, different protection and management measures should be made based on different problems faced by different populations. For Emin population with high seedling mortality rates, the number of tourists to scenic areas should be reduced or limited first. Secondly, core protected areas and general protected areas should be divided within the scenic areas, and human activities are strictly prohibited within the core protected areas; For Tuoli population, we should first accelerate the establishment of a high-precision monitoring and early warning system for natural disasters, and secondly reduce grazing; For Yumin population, artificial assistance measures should be taken to optimize the habitat, promote the germination of seedlings, smooth transition at each stage, and stable growth of the population.