基于期望增长的四川省生态保护修复成效评估方法
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国家重点研发计划(2022YFF1300204);四川省重点研发项目(2022YFS0470);四川省重点研发项目(2023YFS0378);四川省科技计划项目(2023JDR0065)


Research on the evaluation method of ecological protection and restoration effectiveness in Sichuan Province based on expected growth
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    摘要:

    生态保护修复成效评估是新时期生态文明建设绩效考核的需要,也是国际生态学领域面临的挑战和前沿课题。为科学评估生态保护修复成效,克服现有功能指标及指标阈值设置缺陷,在分析了2010-2020年四川省植被覆盖度(FVC)、叶面积指数(LAI)变化趋势、空间聚集特征基础上,从空间、时间两个维度确立了植被功能性状5个特征区,制定了期望得分标准值表,开展了基于期望增长的保护成效评估。结果表明:(1)2010-2020年四川省FVC、LAI总体呈增长趋势,增长模式空间分异契合四川省川西高原气候区和东部中亚热带气候区大体二分气候框架,也与四川省地带性植被分布相对应。FVC、LAI增长极低值区(P<0.01)基本位于川西北高原山地,阿坝州和甘孜州境内。在四川东部中亚热带气候区内,盆缘山地常绿阔叶林和川西南山地常绿阔叶林的FVC、LAI处于增长高值区。两者在四川盆地农业植被区、西南山地等区域的不同增长表现,体现了气候、地带性植被,以及人类活动等因素综合作用的结果,以及FVC、LAI对上述综合作用的差异化响应。(2)2021-2022年四川省LAI期望得分(LAI-Kq)基本维持稳定,FVC期望得分(FVC-Kq)总体稳定(P>0.05),有各别市下降明显(P<0.05),四川省生态保护成效等级为基本稳定。(3)对于不同保护强度的区域来说,2021-2022年,生态保护红线内FVC-Kq低于生态保护红线外,生态保护红线内属于保护地的区域FVC-Kq小于保护地外区域。生态保护红线内外,以及生态保护红线内不同保护强度区域对于LAI-Kq影响较小。(4) FVC单指标难以对特定条件下生态环境质量改善作出准确判断,LAI指标加入有助于提高评估结论的可靠性。基于逻辑斯蒂种群增长模型,提出了FVC、LAI生态质量变化多指数表达框架,未来应在制定更为细致的特征指数选取方案和植被功能性状特征区划的基础上,分区厘定种群增长特征、功能指数响应特征,提高生态质量变化多指数表达能力。

    Abstract:

    The evaluation of the effectiveness of ecological protection and restoration is not only necessary for the performance evaluation of ecological civilization construction in the new era, but also a challenge and cutting-edge issue facing the international ecological field. In order to scientifically evaluate the effectiveness of ecological protection and restoration, overcome the shortcomings of existing functional indicators and indicator threshold settings, this article analyzes the trend of FVC and LAI changes and spatial clustering characteristics in Sichuan Province in the past 10 years. Based on spatial and temporal dimensions, five characteristic zones of vegetation functional traits are established, and an expected score standard value table is developed. A protection effectiveness evaluation based on expected growth is carried out. The results show that: (1) In the past 10 years, FVC and LAI in Sichuan Province have shown an overall growth trend, and the spatial differentiation of growth patterns is in line with the overall binary climate framework of the western Sichuan Plateau climate zone and the eastern central subtropical climate zone in Sichuan Province, and also corresponds to the distribution of zonal vegetation in Sichuan Province. The areas with extremely low growth values of FVC and LAI (P<0.01) are mainly located in the mountainous areas of the northwest Sichuan Plateau, within the borders of Aba Prefecture and Ganzi Prefecture. In the subtropical climate zone of eastern Sichuan, the FVC and LAI of the evergreen broad-leaved forest in the basin edge mountainous areas and the evergreen broad-leaved forest in southwestern Sichuan are in high growth areas. The different growth performances of the two in agricultural vegetation areas such as the Sichuan Basin and southwestern mountainous areas reflect the comprehensive effects of climate, zonal vegetation, and human activities, as well as the differential responses of FVC and LAI to the above comprehensive effects. (2) From 2021 to 2022, LAI-Kq in Sichuan Province remained basically stable, while FVC-Kq remained generally stable (P>0.05), with significant declines in various cities (P<0.05). The ecological protection effectiveness level in Sichuan Province was basically stable. (3) For areas with different protection intensities, from 2021 to 2022, the FVC-Kq within the ecological protection red line is lower than that outside the ecological protection red line, and the FVC-Kq within the ecological protection red line belongs to the protected area is lower than that outside the protected area. The impact of different protection intensities within and outside the ecological protection red line on LAI-Kq is relatively small. (4) The FVC single indicator is difficult to make accurate judgments on the improvement of ecological environment quality under specific conditions, and the addition of LAI indicator helps to improve the reliability of evaluation conclusions. Based on the logistic population growth model, a multi index expression framework for FVC and LAI ecological quality changes has been preliminarily proposed. In the future, more detailed feature index selection schemes and vegetation functional trait zoning should be developed, and population growth characteristics and functional index response characteristics should be partitioned to improve the multi index expression ability of ecological quality changes.

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杨渺,侯鹏,翟俊,蔡明勇,林乃峰,吴瑕.基于期望增长的四川省生态保护修复成效评估方法.生态学报,2025,45(2):586~595

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