华北平原正向“暖干化”演变
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国家自然科学基金项目(42177251)


The North China Plain is turning warmer and dryer
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The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

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    摘要:

    降水(P)、气温(T)、土壤含水量(SWC)和土壤温度(ST)是影响农业生态系统的重要因素,准确刻画其时空变化特征是认识和理解水热交互作用、制定区域农业可持续发展策略的基础。然而,相关研究却严重受限于原位观测站点稀少、监测数据时序短等问题。为了更好地表征这些因素的时空变化特征及相互关系,研究基于ERA5-Land再分析数据,采用Sen斜率、Mann-Kendall检验法对华北平原1953-2022年PT、SWC和ST的变化趋势、突变时间及时空格局进行制图与分析;进而用Spearman相关系数探讨了这些因素之间的关系。结果表明:近70 年来,华北平原年降水总量在509.80-1393.05 mm之间波动,降水变化率为-38.31 mm/10a,突变年份在1988年前后;夏季降水减少速率最快。年均气温在12.11-15.35℃之间波动,气温变化率为0.27℃/10a,突变年份在1996年左右;冬季气温升高速率最快。PT均呈南高北低的分布特征,华北平原西南部降水减少速率较快而升温速率较慢,西北部则表现相反。SWC均呈减少趋势,100-289 cm层含水量变率最大且随时间减少的幅度逐渐增大;四个土层SWC季节变化幅度不同。ST均呈升高趋势且升温速度随时间变快,0-7 cm层升温速率最快。土壤升温幅度春季最大,秋季最小。SWC减少幅度随深度增加而增大,ST升高幅度随深度增加而减小,土壤深度对SWC和ST的影响相反,且SWC突变时间比ST突变时间早近20年。ST和SWC呈南高北低的分布格局,且西北部变率大,东南部变率小。TP、ST与SWC之间的变化趋势相反,P和SWC、T和ST之间的变化趋势相同,SWC与T和P、ST与TP的相关性随土壤深度而减小。综上,华北平原水热条件向"暖干化"演变。研究可增进对华北平原水热变化过程的认识,进而为该地农业可持续发展政策制定提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Precipitation (P), air temperature (T), soil water content (SWC) and soil temperature (ST) are important factors affecting agroecosystems, and accurately depicting their spatio-temporal characteristics is the basis for recognizing and understanding the hydrothermal interactions, and for developing strategies for regional agricultural sustainable development. However, these related works are considerably constrained by the sparse and short-duration in-situ observations. In order to characterize the spatiotemporal changes of these factors and their interrelationships, the temporal changing trends, mutability characteristics, and spatial patterns of P, T, SWC and ST were mapped and analyzed using Sen's slope, Mann-Kendall test based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data in the North China Plain during 1953 and 2022. The relationships among these factors were then explored by using the Spearman's correlation coefficient. The results show that: (1) the annual total precipitation has fluctuated between 509.80 and 1393.05 mm over the past 70 years, with a change rate of -38.31 mm/10 a and abrupt change year around 1988 in the North China Plain, while the fastest decrease rate of precipitation was observed in summer; (2) The mean annual temperature fluctuated between 12.11 and 15.35℃, with a change rate of 0.27℃/10 a, the year of abrupt change was around 1996, while the fastest warming rate occurred in winter; (3) The distribution of P and T was characterized by higher in the south and lower in the north, with a faster rate of decrease in P and slower rate of T in the southwest of the North China Plain, while the opposite trend was found in the northwest. SWC showed a decreasing trend; (4) The SWC of 100-289 cm layer showed the largest rate of change and gradually increased with time, and the seasonal variations of SWC in the four soil layers were different; (5) ST showed an increasing trend and the warming rate became faster with time, and the 0-7 cm layer had the fastest rate of warming. Soil warming was the largest in spring and the smallest in autumn; (6) The magnitude of the SWC decrease increased with depth, the magnitude of the ST elevation decreased with depth. The effects of soil depth on SWC and ST were opposite, and the turning point of SWC was nearly 20 years earlier than that of ST. The spatial distribution of ST and SWC was higher in the south and lower in the north, and the variability was larger in the northwest and smaller in the southeast. P and SWC, T and ST were positively correlated, while SWC and T, P and ST were negatively correlated. The correlation of SWC with T and P, and ST with T and P decreased with soil depths. The North China Plain shows a dryer and warmer climate and the agriculture is vulnerable to future climate change. The study can improve our understandings of the hydrothermal change process in the North China Plain and provide a scientific basis for policy decisions on the sustainable agricultural development within this region.

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琚玉枫,高演辰,张戈,何海龙.华北平原正向“暖干化”演变.生态学报,2024,44(17):7631~7645

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