Habitat degradation, which was resulted from global warming and human disturbance, has put the survival and distribution of wild mammals in jeopardy. In order to provide a theoretical basis for the future conservation of white-lipped deer (Cervus albirostris), an endemic deer to Qinghai-Tibet deer, this paper tries to explore and simulate the dominant climatic and ecological factors that affect distribution pattern and area of the potential suitable habitat for white-lipped deer. Based on 491 geographical distribution samples, among which 372 samples were collected from literature and 119 samples were collected during our field investigation, within the distribution range of white-lipped deer, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) to simulate the geographical distribution of potential suitable habitat for white-lipped deer in 2040 (2021-2040) and 2100 (2081-2100) under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The receiver operating characteristic curve, Jackknife test and the precent contrition of the environmental factors are carried out to analyze to the factors that limiting the distribution pattern and area of potential suitable habitat of white-lipped deer. The model results showed that there were environmental factors, including vegetation type, the mean temperature of the warmest quarter, the highest temperature in warmest quarter and elevation, were the most important factors that affect the distribution pattern and area of potential suitable habitat for white-lipped deer. The area of potential suitable habitat for white-lipped deer has decreased under the both two shared socio-economic pathways from 2021 to 2100, with the south of Tibet, Three Parallel Rivers Region and the border zone of Qinghai, Sichuan and Gansu being the most affected. Furthermore, the average elevation of potentially suitable habitat for white-lipped deer increased, and its centroid shifted to high latitude. The highest and the lowest proportions of the potential suitable habitat were 76.11% and 26.92% under SSP1-2.6, while it was 93.17-98.51% under SSP5-8.5, which distributed in the protection gap analysis (GAP) ranges of the national barrier zone, national nature reserve, and non-national nature reserve of China. Our findings revealed that global warming primarily affected the potential suitable habitat of white-lipped deer by causing warming on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the warm season, and that more than 73.80% of the potential suitable habitat was still outside of the current protected area. The global social economic development model, which should achieve sustainable development status as soon as possible, as well as GAP conservation planning, should be extremely beneficial to future biodiversity conservation.