多尺度滑坡灾害生态风险评价与风险管理——以三峡库区万州-巫山段为例
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国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1505501);国家自然科学基金项目(42071306);国家自然科学基金项目(41807498)


Multi-scale ecological risk assessment and risk management of landslide disasters: a case study of Wanzhou-Wushan section in the Three Gorges Reservoir area
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    摘要:

    进行生态风险多尺度综合评价,对环境管理及风险决策具有重要意义。以三峡库区滑坡重点监测县域为例,基于"危险性-脆弱性-潜在损失"三维模型,以随机森林模型评估滑坡危险性,采用景观格局指数表征生态脆弱性,利用生境质量核算潜在生态损失,进行格网、行政、子流域多尺度下的滑坡灾害生态风险评价,提出适合各尺度的风险管理措施,在此基础上选择最适宜尺度并结合研究区实际情况进行验证。结果表明,生态风险等级较高区域集中于长江两岸沿线,三峡库区建设对研究区滑坡生态风险产生较大影响;两两尺度风险分布结果具有一定相似性,而三种尺度共同作用结果又存在一定差异;子流域尺度在保证生态结构完整性的前提下评价结果好于其他两种尺度,更适合三峡库区县域的生态风险评价;研究区东部风险防范类型相对单一,而西部风险防范类型较多,需做到精细化管理。研究增加了多尺度综合评价实例,对今后开展整个三峡库区滑坡生态风险研究奠定一定理论和实践基础。

    Abstract:

    The multi-scale comprehensive analysis of ecological risk assessment is of great significance to environmental management and risk-based decision making. This study takes key monitoring counties with frequent landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as examples. Based on the three-dimensional model of "Hazard-Vulnerability-Damage", the random forest model was applied to evaluate the landslide hazard, the landscape pattern index was selected to characterize the ecological vulnerability, and the habitat quality was used to calculate the potential ecological damage. We carried out the ecological risk assessment of landslide disasters under the grid, administrative, and sub-watershed scales, and proposed risk management measures suitable for each scale. The results indicate that areas with higher ecological risk levels were concentrated along the banks of the Yangtze River at any scale, since the construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir area had a greater impact on the ecological risk of landslides in the study area. The risk distribution results of each two scales were comparable to a certain extent, while certain differences existed in the results of the overlay of three scales. The evaluation result of the sub-watershed scale was preferable than the other two scales under the premise of ensuring the integrity of the ecological structure, and was more suitable for the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The eastern part of the study area had a relatively homogeneous type of risk prevention, while the western part had a variety of types of risk prevention, which required refined management. This study adds a multi-scale comprehensive assessment example, and lays a theoretical and practical basis for future research on ecological risk assessment of landslides in the entire Three Gorges Reservoir area.

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许嘉慧,孙德亮,张虹,文海家,吴健平,黄艳.多尺度滑坡灾害生态风险评价与风险管理——以三峡库区万州-巫山段为例.生态学报,2023,43(11):4594~4603

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