长江流域生态系统服务价值时空演变与预测
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国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3201004);珠江人才计划引进创新创业团队项目(2019ZT08L213)


Evolution and prediction of ecosystem service values of the Yangtze River Basin
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    摘要:

    长江流域是我国的经济重心和生态保育区,揭示其生态系统服务价值(ESV)的历史演变和发展趋势对支撑长江流域的生态经济系统持续发展具有重要意义。采用长江流域1992-2018年逐年土地利用数据,构建了基于修正系数的ESV评估模型和FLUS-Markov土地利用预测模型,解析了全流域ESV的历史演变特征和未来2030年变化趋势。结果表明:(1)2018年长江流域的ESV总量11.68×1012元,1992-2018年ESV呈上升趋势,年均提高297.00×108元;(2)供给服务价值是流域ESV的最大贡献源,占总量的48.3%-51.8%,文化服务价值是增长最快的贡献源,1992-2018年增长了52.5%;(3)上游地区是长江流域ESV最集中的区域,上游ESV占全流域的45.15-46.8%,从1992年到2018年,长江流域ESV重心有向下游流动的趋势;(4)2030年长江流域的建设用地将进一步扩展,同时耕地、草地面积有下降的风险,2030年长江流域的ESV新增量达到0.36×1012元,主要来自娱乐和气候调节服务价值的提升;(5)开展逐年尺度的ESV演变分析可有效降低变化趋势判断的不确定性,有利于获得精细、可靠的趋势判别结果。

    Abstract:

    The Yangtze River Basin is China's economic center and ecological conservation area. Revealing its ecosystem service value's historical evolution and development trend is of great significance to maintain the sustainable development of the Yangtze River Basin's eco-economic system. Based on the annual land use data of the Yangtze River Basin from 1992 to 2018, the evaluation model of ecosystem service value (ESV) based on the revised coefficient and the land use prediction model of FLUS-Markov were constructed to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of ESV in the Basin from 1992 to 2018 and 2030. The results showed that the total ESV in the Yangtze River Basin was 11.68 trillion yuan in 2018 and presented an upward trend from 1992 to 2018, with an average annual increase of 29.7 billion yuan. The value of supply services was the largest contributing source of the Basin's ESV, accounting for 48.3%-51.8% of the total. The value of cultural services was the fastest-growing contribution source, with an increase of 52.5% from 1992 to 2018. The upstream region contributed the largest ESV in the Yangtze River Basin, accounting for 45.1%-46.8% and the hotspots of ESV in the Yangtze River Basin tended to move to downstream. In 2030, the construction land in the Yangtze River Basin will be further expanded, and the arable land and grassland areas will have a risk of decline. In 2030, the new increment of ESV in the Yangtze River Basin will reach 356.32 billion yuan, mainly from the enhancement of entertainment and climate regulation service value. The evaluation of ESV based on the year-on-year scale is helpful to obtain accurate and reliable results for temporal trend identification.

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高伟,李欣悦,张远,陈岩.长江流域生态系统服务价值时空演变与预测.生态学报,2023,43(15):6203~6211

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