As a region with the highest level of urbanization and the most developed economy in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Shenzhen's rapidly changing land use patterns have had a profound impact on the value of ecosystem services. Based on the law of land use and ESV changes in Shenzhen from 1995 to 2015, using FLUS model and ESV algorithm, four scenarios of natural development, urban development, cultivated land protection and ecological protection were set to simulate the impact of land use changes on ESV under different scenarios. The results show that:(1) The land type with the highest transfer volume from 1995 to 2015 is grassland, and there is a close mutual transformation relationship between grassland and woodland. Except for construction land, the rest of the land types are in a situation of "making ends meet"; (2) From 1995 to 2015, the downward trend of the total value of ESV in 2015 changed from rapid to moderate. Regulating service is the most important ecosystem service function in Shenzhen, followed by supporting service function; (3) Adhering to the basic principles of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area construction, with 2035 As the target year, four scenarios were set for natural development, urban development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection. It was found that the total ESV value loss of natural development and urban development was relatively high. The increase in building area and the large-scale reduction of grassland area became The key to the reduction in the value of ecosystem services in the two scenarios. Under the ecological protection scenario, although the decrease in the total value of ESV has not been effectively curbed, the reduction is significantly less than the other three scenarios, making it the optimal scenario for future land use optimization in Shenzhen.