1990年来中国城镇建设用地占用耕地的效率和驱动机理时空分析
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国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0507202,2017YFA0603702,2018YFB0505403);国家自然科学基金项目(419713581)


Spatio-temporal analysis of the economic benefit and driving mechanism of urban build-up land occupying the cultivated land in China since 1990
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    摘要:

    定量揭示城镇建设用地与耕地的时空变化关系和相互作用机理,是如何实现城镇建设用地需求与耕地资源保护二者间动态平衡的关键问题之一。基于1990-2015年全国城镇建设用地及耕地的空间数据,在对比分析中国31个省份近25年来的城镇建设用地及耕地时空格局变化的基础上,定量求算因城镇建设用地扩张导致耕地减少的速率,并引入数据包络分析法和地理探测器,实现自1990年以来中国城镇建设用地占用耕地的驱动效用机理。结果表明:1)在时间维度上,1990-2015年间,中国城镇建设用地增长2.6×104 km2,增速107%,而扩张速率以2.4%/5 a逐渐降低。1990-2000年耕地呈增加趋势(增加2.96×104 km2),2000年后呈减少趋势,总体减少速率为0.29%/5 a。全国新增城镇建设用地占用2.12×104 km2耕地,占城镇新增总量的72.5%;2)在空间分布上,全国城镇建设用地扩张面积由东向西逐渐减小,但2010后的西部区域扩张速度呈上升趋势。耕地面积在西北和东北地区有所增加,东部和中部呈减少趋势,城镇建设用地占用耕地比例由东部向西部逐渐减弱,但中东部耕地被建设用地占用形式仍然严重;3)在城镇建设用地占用耕地的效用上,1990-2015年,全国城镇建设用地占用耕地的产出效益呈现降低趋势,其中产出效益超过0.8的省份主要分布在沿海地区,西北地区产出效益普遍较低。分析结果显示,经济发展因素是新增城镇建设用地占用耕地的主要驱动因素,其次为空间位置因素和政策措施,自2010年后政策因素的驱动作用强度呈增加趋势。

    Abstract:

    To effectively resolve the key issues for a dynamic balance between urban land demand and cultivated land resources protection, this study researched the spatio-temporal relationship between urban land and cultivated land change and also revealed the spatio-temporal driving effect of urban land occupying cultivated land. Based on spatial data of urban land and cultivated land in China from 1990 to 2015, as well as comparing the spatio-temporal pattern of urban land and cultivated land in 31 provincial units in the past 25 years, the rate of cultivated land loss occupied by urban land was explicitly measured. To quantitatively depict the spatio-temporal economic benefit and driving mechanism of urban land occupying cultivated land, the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model and geographical detector were also introduced by the study, respectively. The results showed that: 1) in terms of time, urban land area has increased by 2.6×104 km2, with a growth rate of 107% and its expansion rate slowed down gradually by 2.4%/5a in 31 provincial units from 1990 to 2015. The cultivated land increased by 1.41×104 km2. There was net loss of cultivated land area after 2000, but the rate of loss gradually decreased with 0.21%/5a. New urban land occupied 2.12×104 km2 cultivated land, accounting for 72.5% of the total area of new urban land, but the rate of cultivated land area occupied by urban land was decreasing with 0.23%/5a after 2000. 2) Spatially, the expansion area of urban land was gradually decreasing from east to west in China, and the expansion speed of the western region is increasing. The cultivated land area increased in northwest and northeast China, while the loss in the east and central China was serious. The occupying cultivated land by urban land gradually weakened from the east to the west, and the loss of cultivated land area, as well as the seriously occupying cultivated land by new urban land, were mainly distributed in traditional farming areas and coastal areas in China. The output effect of cultivated land occupied by urban land showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2015. The provincial units whose output effect value exceeded 0.8 were mainly distributed in coastal areas, while the output effect of northwest areas was generally low. In the same period, the economic development factor was the main driving factor for the occupation of cultivated land by new urban land in China, followed by resource environment factor and policy measures. The driving force of resource environment and economic development factors showed a downward trend as a whole, and the driving force of policy measures was increasing.

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范泽孟,李赛博.1990年来中国城镇建设用地占用耕地的效率和驱动机理时空分析.生态学报,2021,41(1):374~387

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