2000-2010年中国大陆地区建设用地扩张的驱动力分析
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中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京市农林科学院,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,国土资源部信息中心

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全国生态环境十年(2000-2010年)变化遥感调查与评估项目(STSN-04);国家自然科学基金(40901300);中国科学院"一三五"规划重大任务(Y201131Z05)


Driving forces of built-up land expansion in China from 2000 to 2010
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Institute of Policy and Management,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences,,

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    摘要:

    2000-2010年我国社会经济迅猛发展,城乡建设用地急剧扩张。分析建设用地扩张的驱动力,辨识关键驱动因素,能够为我国土地资源的可持续利用提供支撑。研究以地级行政区为基本分析单元,以建设用地面积百分比的变化为因变量,以14个地理、经济、人口和政策变量为解释变量,分别采用普通线性回归模型、空间滞后回归模型和空间误差回归模型,分析2000-2010年我国大陆地区建设用地扩张的驱动力。结果发现,我国各地区建设用地扩张具有显著的正向空间自相关性,使普通线性回归模型估计结果有偏。比较3种回归模型的拟合效果也发现,两种空间回归模型的拟合效果明显好于普通线性回归模型;考虑到建设用地扩张的空间传导性,研究认为空间滞后回归模型是我国建设用地扩张驱动力分析的最适合模型。模型回归结果显示研究期内我国建设用地扩张受到各种地理、经济、人口和政策因素的广泛影响。第二产业的迅猛发展、流动人口的迁移聚集、固定资产投资和外商直接投资的快速增长,以及投资驱动的大规模土地城镇化和路网等基础设施建设是驱动我国各地区建设用地扩张的主要驱动力;第三产业的发展、进口增长以及自然保护的区建设等对建设用地的扩张具有一定的抑制作用,是缓解建设用地过快扩张的重要因素。此外,海拔和坡度等地理因素也有一定的影响。如果扣除其他因素的影响,受西部大开发、中部崛起、东北振兴等区域均衡发展战略的影响,此间我国建设用地扩张更倾向于出现在平均海拔更高的地区;而平均坡度的升高则对建设用地的扩张具有明显的抑制作用。

    Abstract:

    China experienced rapid socioeconomic development and built-up land expansion during 2000-2010. Identifying key driving forces of built-up land expansion is essential for policy-makers to develop effective policies for sustainable land management. In this study, the change in the expansion of built-up land was used as the dependent variable, and 14 geographic, economic, demographic, and policy-related explanatory variables were chosen. Three models, including the ordinary least squares linear regression model, spatial lag model, and spatial error model were used to analyze the driving forces of built-up land expansion. The results showed that the spatial distribution of built-up land expansion was not random, but exhibited significant positive spatial autocorrelations, which would reduce the stability and accuracy of conventional ordinary least squares linear regression models and their explanatory power to the degree that they would not reflect reality. Comparing the goodness-of-fit for the three regression models, the spatial lag model proved to be more robust. The regression results of the spatial lag model indicated that built-up land expansion was widely influenced by various geographic, economic, demographic, and policy factors. The rapid development of secondary industry, massive in-migration floating populations, growth of fixed asset investments, and foreign direct investments, together with investment-driven land urbanization and infrastructure development were considered the primary driving forces of built-up land expansion in China from 2000 to 2010. Conversely, the development of tertiary industry, importation growth, and the establishment of natural protected areas helped to control construction land expansion. Moreover, natural factors, such as terrain slope and elevation influenced on built-up land expansion. Other things being equal, built-up land expansion occurred more frequently where the average elevation was high, because of several balanced regional development strategies, such as the Great Western Development Strategy, the Northeast China Revitalization Strategy, and the Rise of Central China Plan in the high altitude regions. In addition, increasing average slope had a significant negative (inhibiting) effect on built-up land expansion.

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黄宝荣,张慧智,宋敦江,马永欢.2000-2010年中国大陆地区建设用地扩张的驱动力分析.生态学报,2017,37(12):4149~4158

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