1990-2030年中国主要陆地生态系统碳固定服务时空变化
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国家自然科学基金面上项目(41371019);国家“十二五”科技支撑计划课题(2013BAC03B04)


Temporal and spatial patterns of carbon sequestration services for primary terrestrial ecosystems in China between 1990 and 2030
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    摘要:

    以中国森林、草地、湿地等主要陆地生态系统为研究对象,估算了植被和土壤有机碳固定量现状与近20年生态系统碳固定变化量,预测了未来20年3种不同社会经济发展情景下主要陆地生态系统的碳固定潜力,评估了我国主要陆地生态系统碳固定服务的现状、过去变化及未来潜力。结果表明:(1)2010年,中国主要陆地生态系统碳固定总量达17.29PgC,其中植被碳固定量8.70PgC,30cm深度土壤有机碳固定量8.59PgC。其中,森林碳固定量占73.26%,草地占21.55%,湿地占5.18%。(2)1990-2000年,我国主要陆地生态系统碳固定总量减少了2.15%,其中森林、草地和湿地分别减少了1.12%、0.97%、20.19%。2000-2010年,碳固定总量增加了2.92%,其中森林增加了3.72%,草地和湿地分别减少了0.62%和5.59%。(3)前、后两个10年相比,碳固定总量从轻微下降转变为轻微上升趋势。其中,森林碳固定量从下降趋势转变为上升趋势,说明生态工程成效明显。草地碳固定量处于基本持衡态势,碳固定减少量和减少比例有所下降,湿地碳固定量的下降趋势亦有所缓解,说明草地退化、湿地破坏趋势有所遏制,但仍需要重点关注。(4)至2030年,3种社会经济发展情景下,我国主要陆地生态系统碳固定总量将呈现较明显的上升态势,增量可达430.11-498.06TgC,增加比例5.15-5.97%,以森林碳固定量增加为主,而草地碳固定服务呈现微弱减少态势。

    Abstract:

    We selected forest, grassland, wetland ecosystems to estimate the status of vegetation and soil organic carbon sequestration capacity and changes in ecosystem carbon sequestration between 1990 and 2010. Then, we projected the potential for ecosystem carbon sequestration under three different social development situations up to 2030. The past, current, and future potential of carbon sequestration services for mainly terrestrial ecosystems were assessed. (1) In 2010, carbon sequestration of mainly terrestrial ecosystems was 17.29 PgC in China, of which vegetation carbon was 8.7 PgC and soil organic carbon was 8.59 PgC at a depth of 30 cm. Forest carbon accounted for 73.26%; grassland carbon, 21.55%; and wetland carbon, 5.18%. (2) Between 1990 and 2000, carbon sequestration services of mainly terrestrial ecosystems increased slightly, and overall carbon sequestration reduced by 2.15%; forest, grassland, and wetland carbon decreased by 1.12%, 0.97%, and 20.19%, respectively. Between 2000 and 2010, carbon sequestration services of mainly terrestrial ecosystems increased slightly, and the amount of carbon fixed increased by 2.92%; forest carbon increased by 3.72%, and grassland and wetland carbon decreased by 0.62% and 5.59%, respectively. (3) When the former 10 years were compared to the latter 10 years, carbon sequestration services of mainly terrestrial ecosystems showed a shift from a slight drop to a slightly upward trend. The variation trends of carbon sequestration services for forest changed from decreasing or basically unchanging to increasing. Grassland carbon sequestration services continued to show a basic balance and a decline in the proportion of carbon sequestration. The reducing trend of wetland carbon sequestration services has improved. (4) Up to 2030, carbon sequestration services of main terrestrial ecosystems will show an obvious rising trend, (up to 430.11-498.06 TgC), with an increase of 5.15%-5.97% in the proportion of carbon sequestration.

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黄麟,刘纪远,邵全琴,邓祥征.1990-2030年中国主要陆地生态系统碳固定服务时空变化.生态学报,2016,36(13):3891~3902

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