近30年气候异常对江苏省褐飞虱灾变性迁入的影响
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南京信息工程大学,南京信息工程大学,南京信息工程大学,江苏省植物保护站;江苏省植物保护站,江苏省植物保护站;江苏省植物保护站,江苏省植物保护站;江苏省植物保护站

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国家自然科学基金面上项目(41075086);国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006026);江苏省农业科技自主创新项目(SCX(12)3058);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程


Impact of climate anomalies on catastrophic immigrations of Nilaparvata lugens (Stål) in Jiangsu Province
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Nanjing University of Information Science Technology,,,,,

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    摘要:

    近30年来,中国褐飞虱的灾变性迁入因受气候变化的影响而出现了明显的时空变异,为了揭示气候异常对褐飞虱区域性灾变的影响,为我国褐飞虱灾变预警及其区域危害的防控提供理论依据,在收集1983-2008年江苏省32个植保站褐飞虱灯诱资料、1981-2008年太平洋海表温度和南方涛动指数数据及1983-2008年江苏省70个气象台站降水和气温观测资料的基础上,选取高邮、通州和宜兴作为江苏省不同水稻生长区的代表性测站(其中高邮代表江淮稻区,通州代表苏北沿海稻区,宜兴代表苏南稻区),通过对近30年来太平洋海温场、南方涛动、迁入区降水和温度异常与江苏省褐飞虱发生程度之间关系的分析,探讨了气候异常对该省褐飞虱灾变性迁入的影响。结果表明:(1)赤道东太平洋海表水温持续偏高的厄尔尼诺事件多引发江苏省褐飞虱偏重以上程度的发生,且其首次迁入峰的出现时间与厄尔尼诺事件开始期之间有1-14个月的滞后期。(2)南方涛动指数(SOI)持续出现负值的厄尔尼诺事件发生的当年或次年,褐飞虱为偏重以上的发生程度,且其首次迁入峰的出现时间滞后于SOI负值开始期1-14个月。(3)登陆并影响江苏的强热带气旋偏多的拉尼娜年也会出现褐飞虱偏重以上的发生。(4)降水对褐飞虱迁入的影响明显,但有限制条件;降水量大、降水日数多的年份褐飞虱迁入量大、发生程度重;以6-10月降水量、降水日数和降水强度为预报因子,建立了褐飞虱发生等级的回归方程,方程拟合和试报效果好。(5)夏秋季6-10月地面气温的异常对江苏省褐飞虱迁入的发生有一定的影响,秋温偏高的年份常导致江苏省褐飞虱偏重以上的发生。

    Abstract:

    Due to global climate change, the catastrophic immigration events of brown plant hopper (Nilaparvata lugens stål) (BPH) have been experiencing distinct changes in temporal and spatial patterns in Jiangsu province, China over the past three decades. In this study, various observational data were collected to investigate the impacts of climate anomalies on regional catastrophes of BPH in China and to provide a scientific evidence in support of the establishment and application of the BPH forecasting-warning system and the decision-making of BPH's endangering controlling and prevention. The data includes the BPH's lighting trap catches observed at thirty-two plant protection stations in Jiangsu Province during 1983-2008, the precipitation and temperature at seventy meteorological stations in the province during 1983-2008, the Pacific Ocean's sea surface temperature (SST) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) during 1981-2008. Based on the results of classifying BPH's lighting trap catches in the five grades that the BPH's immigration occurrence is the Grade 1 when the daily BPH's lighting trap catch less than 1000 heads, the Grade 2 in between 1000 to 2000 heads, the Grade 3 in between 2001 to 3000 heads, the Grade 4 in between 3001 to 4000 heads and the Grade 5 of daily lighting trap catch more than 4000 heads, the analysis on the temporal variations and spatial distributions of BPH's immigration occurrence grades in the province over the past three decades was carried through. Gaoyou, Tongzhou and Yixing was selected as the representative stations of three typical rice-growing regions in Jiang-Huai area, the coastal areas in North Jiangsu, and South Jiangsu, respectively. The relationships between SST, SOI, air temperature, precipitation and the occurrence grade of BPH's immigration were examined to assess the impacts of climate anomalies on the catastrophic migration events of BPH at the three sites. Several findings were identified from this study. First, the heavy catastrophic migration events of BPH that included the Grade 4 and the Grade 5 of the BPH's immigration occurrence in Jiangsu province were attributed to El Nio event occurrences, which were associated with warming of SST in eastern Pacific Ocean in the equator or the case that negative SOI lasted for more than six months; the first immigration peaks of BPH is usually 1-14 month(s) later than the onset dates of El Nio events. Second, the heavy BPH immigration events may happen in La Nia years when more landfalling tropical cyclones cross Jiangsu province, exert important impact on the weather and carry the migrating BPH's insect sources into the rice-growing fields there. Third, the precipitation was one of the key factors influencing the BPH catastrophic migration events. Higher precipitation and more rainy days were responsible for more migrating BPH and heavier disasters. The predictions showed better agreement with the observations when the forecasting equation was built on the precipitation, rainy days, and precipitation intensity during the period from June to October. Finally, the heavy BPH events may happen in Jiangsu province when surface temperature anomalies were observed during the period from June to October. This was especially true when temperature has positive anomalies in autumn.

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包云轩,蒋蓉,谢晓金,朱叶芹,杨荣明,朱凤.近30年气候异常对江苏省褐飞虱灾变性迁入的影响.生态学报,2014,34(23):7078~7092

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