粤港澳大湾区生态网络时空格局演变与趋势
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1.华南农业大学;2.华南农业大学林学与风景园林学院

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国家自然科学基金(42471217);广东省自然科学基金面上项目(2022A1515011259)


Spatial-temporal pattern evolution and trend of the ecological networks in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
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1.South China Agricultural University;2.South China Agriculture University

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    摘要:

    生态网络在区域生态安全格局构建和国土生态空间修复中发挥着关键作用。探究和揭示粤港澳大湾区生态网络时空格局演变并对其未来发展趋势进行模拟预测,对于优化粤港澳大湾区国土空间布局结构、协调社会经济发展与生态环境保护之间的关系具有重要意义。结合斑块生成土地利用模拟(PLUS)模型、生态系统服务评估与权衡(InVEST)模型和最小累积阻力(MCR)模型的应用,对1985—2020年粤港澳大湾区生态网络时空演变特征进行研究,并对惯性发展、城镇扩张、耕地保护与生态保护四种情景下2035年和2050年的生态网络变化趋势进行预测。研究发现:①粤港澳大湾区生态源地在空间上呈“中部稀疏、四周密集”的格局。1985—2020年期间,生态源地面积和生态网络连通性呈“M”型波动下降趋势。主要受城镇建设用地和基础设施建设不断扩张的影响,生态源地经历了“收缩—消亡—恢复—扩张”的复杂过程。②城市交界地带的高速公路等交通基础设施的建设是导致生态廊道发生显著变化的最主要原因。这些设施的建设加大区域生态网络的连通阻力,使粤港澳大湾区生态网络的整体连通性下降。③在惯性发展、城镇扩张和耕地保护情景下,2035年和2050年粤港澳大湾区的生态源地面积和生态网络连通性均呈下降趋势,其中,耕地保护情景的降幅最大;而在生态保护情景下,生态源地面积和生态网络连通性得到恢复,生态网络整体性和稳定性得到显著改善和提升。研究结论可为优化大湾区国土空间结构与生态网络格局,制定社会经济发展和生态保护相协调的土地开发政策提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Ecological networks play a crucial role in shaping regional ecological security patterns and restoring territorial ecological spaces. Exploring and revealing the spatiotemporal evolution of the ecological network in the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) and simulating and predicting its future development trends are of great significance for optimizing the spatial layout structure of the GBA and coordinating the relationship between socio - economic development and ecological environment protection. This study integrated the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Model, and the Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) Model to investigate the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the ecological networks in the GBA from 1985 to 2020. Additionally, it predicted the trends in ecological network changes for 2035 and 2050 under inertial development, urban expansion, cultivated land protection, and ecological conservation scenarios. The results indicated that: (1) The ecological sources in the GBA exhibited a spatial pattern of "sparsity in the center and density around the perimeter." Between 1985 and 2020, both the ecological source areas and the ecological network connectivity showed an "M"-shaped fluctuating downward trend. This decline was primarily driven by the continuous expansion of urban construction land and infrastructure. Ecological sources followed a complex sequence of "contraction-disappearance-restoration-expansion." (2) The construction of transportation infrastructure, such as highways, in urban inter-junction areas was the primary cause of significant changes in ecological corridors. The development of these facilities increased the connectivity resistance within the regional ecological network and altered the continuity and alignment of ecological corridors. Consequently, this raised the costs associated with material circulation, energy flow, and information transfer between ecological source areas, leading to a decline in the overall connectivity of ecological networks in the GBA. (3) Under the scenarios of inertial development, urban expansion, and cultivated land protection, the ecological source areas and the ecological network connectivity in the GBA both showed a declining trend by 2035 and 2050. The ecological network was further damaged, and its structure became more fragile. Among these scenarios, the cultivated land protection scenario showed the largest decline, with the indicators for the ecological source areas and the ecological network connectivity being significantly lower than those in other scenarios. In contrast, under the ecological protection scenario, the ecological source areas and the ecological network connectivity recovered, and the integrity and stability of the ecological network were significantly improved and enhanced. Therefore, in future land use policies and planning for the GBA, it is essential to strike a balance between the development of construction land, the protection of cultivated land, and the restoration of ecological land. These findings provide a scientific basis for optimizing the territorial spatial structure and ecological network patterns in the GBA and for formulating land development policies that align socio-economic development with ecological protection.

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杨文越,徐子豪,章家恩.粤港澳大湾区生态网络时空格局演变与趋势.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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