Abstract:Alterations in marine environmental conditions driven by climate change significantly influence vital biological activities of marine species. As a short-lived cephalopod, the potential habitat distribution of Uroteuthis duvauceli demonstrates heightened sensitivity to climate-induced environmental perturbations due to its rapid life history strategy. In order to explore the impact of climate change on the potential habitat suitability of the Uroteuthis duvauceli in the coastal waters of Zhejiang, the study utilized the bottom trawl survey data within the spawning grounds in Zhejiang offshore waters, with marine environmental data including sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS) and dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) during the critical months of April-May and November, spanning the period from 2018 to 2023. Species distribution models (SDMs) integrated with the Catboost algorithm were employed for the simulation and analysis of distribution and changes of the habitat of Uroteuthis duvauceli under diverse phases of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, encompassing both El Ni?o and La Ni?a events. The results showed that the CatBoost exhibits superior predictive accuracy compared to other machine learning models. In randomized predictive assessments, it achieved average area under curve (AUC) values of 0.757 in spring and 0.896 in autumn, respectively. For the actual 2023 habitat predictions, CatBoost yielded AUC values of 0.839 in spring and 0.884 in autumn, respectively. Depth and SST were identified as the primarily environmental factors that have influence on the distribution of potential habitat for Uroteuthis duvauceli. The optimal depth for its habitat was ranged from 40 to 60 meters, with the optimal SST ranges being 15°C-18°C in spring and shifting to a warmer range of 18°C-22°C in autumn. The research revealed distinct and seasonally modulated responses of habitat suitability of Uroteuthis duvauceli to ENSO phenomena. During spring, the occurrence of both El Ni?o and La Ni?a events facilitated the expansion of suitable habitat area for Uroteuthis duvauceli. In contrast, autumn exhibited more complex responses. During La Ni?a in autumn, the spatial extent of highly suitable habitat of Uroteuthis duvauceli expanded substantially, and shifted to deeper waters. Conversely, during autumn El Ni?o period, the highly suitable habitat area of the squid shifted toward offshore areas, resulting in a decrease in the overall suitable habitat area. The findings of this study can provide a vital scientific foundation for the fisheries management and exploitation of the squid fishery in Zhejiang offshore waters under the context of accelerating global climate change and increasing oceanographic variability.