ENSO事件对浙江近海杜氏枪乌贼潜在栖息地分布的影响
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浙江省海洋水产研究所

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浙江渔场渔业资源监测调查和可持续利用技术研发与应用(HYS-CZ-202405);浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(HYS-CZ-202502)


The impact of ENSO events on the potential habitat distribution of Uroteuthis duvauceli in the coastal waters of Zhejiang Province
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Zhejiang Marine Fisheries Research Institute

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Monitoring and Investigation of Fishery Resources in Zhejiang Fishing Ground, Research and Application of Sustainable Utilization Technology(HYS-CZ-202502),Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province funding project(HYS-CZ-202502)

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    摘要:

    气候变化能够引起海洋环境的变化,影响海洋生物的生命活动,作为一种短周期生活史的头足类生物,杜氏枪乌贼的潜在栖息地分布对气候变化的响应较为强烈。为探索气候变化对浙江近海杜氏枪乌贼潜在栖息地的影响,本研究根据2018—2023年4—5月和11月浙江近海产卵场拖网调查资料,以及包括海表面温度、海表面盐度、溶解氧浓度等海洋环境数据,采用物种分布模型和Catboost算法模拟和分析不同厄尔尼诺和南方涛动(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)事件下杜氏枪乌贼的栖息地分布及变动。结果显示:Catboost相较于其他机器学习模型具有更精确的预测性能,其随机预测的平均曲线下面积值(Area under curve,AUC)春季为0.757,秋季为0.896,而2023年Catboost的实际预测AUC春季为0.839,秋季为0.884。深度和海表面温度是影响杜氏枪乌贼潜在栖息地分布的主要环境因子,最适深度为40—60 m,春季海表面温度最适范围为15—18℃,秋季为18—22℃。杜氏枪乌贼的栖息地对ENSO事件具有明显的季节性响应。春季,厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜的发生都会使杜氏枪乌贼的适宜栖息地扩散。秋季杜氏枪乌贼栖息地对ENSO事件的响应更复杂,秋季拉尼娜发生期间,杜氏枪乌贼的高适生区面积大幅度扩散,且栖息海域更深;秋季厄尔尼诺发生期间,杜氏枪乌贼高适生区向外海移动,但栖息地适生区面积减少。本研究可为气候变化下的浙江近海枪乌贼资源的渔业管理和开发提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Alterations in marine environmental conditions driven by climate change significantly influence vital biological activities of marine species. As a short-lived cephalopod, the potential habitat distribution of Uroteuthis duvauceli demonstrates heightened sensitivity to climate-induced environmental perturbations due to its rapid life history strategy. In order to explore the impact of climate change on the potential habitat suitability of the Uroteuthis duvauceli in the coastal waters of Zhejiang, the study utilized the bottom trawl survey data within the spawning grounds in Zhejiang offshore waters, with marine environmental data including sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS) and dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) during the critical months of April-May and November, spanning the period from 2018 to 2023. Species distribution models (SDMs) integrated with the Catboost algorithm were employed for the simulation and analysis of distribution and changes of the habitat of Uroteuthis duvauceli under diverse phases of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, encompassing both El Ni?o and La Ni?a events. The results showed that the CatBoost exhibits superior predictive accuracy compared to other machine learning models. In randomized predictive assessments, it achieved average area under curve (AUC) values of 0.757 in spring and 0.896 in autumn, respectively. For the actual 2023 habitat predictions, CatBoost yielded AUC values of 0.839 in spring and 0.884 in autumn, respectively. Depth and SST were identified as the primarily environmental factors that have influence on the distribution of potential habitat for Uroteuthis duvauceli. The optimal depth for its habitat was ranged from 40 to 60 meters, with the optimal SST ranges being 15°C-18°C in spring and shifting to a warmer range of 18°C-22°C in autumn. The research revealed distinct and seasonally modulated responses of habitat suitability of Uroteuthis duvauceli to ENSO phenomena. During spring, the occurrence of both El Ni?o and La Ni?a events facilitated the expansion of suitable habitat area for Uroteuthis duvauceli. In contrast, autumn exhibited more complex responses. During La Ni?a in autumn, the spatial extent of highly suitable habitat of Uroteuthis duvauceli expanded substantially, and shifted to deeper waters. Conversely, during autumn El Ni?o period, the highly suitable habitat area of the squid shifted toward offshore areas, resulting in a decrease in the overall suitable habitat area. The findings of this study can provide a vital scientific foundation for the fisheries management and exploitation of the squid fishery in Zhejiang offshore waters under the context of accelerating global climate change and increasing oceanographic variability.

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陈峰,李建雄,方光杰,张洪亮,蒋日进,徐开达. ENSO事件对浙江近海杜氏枪乌贼潜在栖息地分布的影响.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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