Abstract:As a national carbon trading pilot zone and a pivotal area for coordinated development, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) urban agglomeration faces an urgent need to integrate regional division of labor with cross-regional linkages, and to clarify its carbon emission structure and transfer pathways across different spatial scales, thereby establishing equitable carbon responsibilities and enabling precision governance. Existing research has predominantly focused on single spatial scales or static analyses, which are insufficient for systematically revealing the dynamic processes of carbon transfer within and beyond the region.This study is dedicated to addressing this issue, using an embedded multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model combined with value chain decomposition and structural path analysis (SPA) to systematically examine the structural configuration, spatial patterns, and evolutionary characteristics of carbon transfer from both production and consumption perspectives, and to further trace its distribution within the urban agglomeration, across domestic provinces, and internationally. The findings indicate: (1) The embodied carbon transfer in the BTH urban agglomeration exhibits a pronounced spatial mismatch pattern characterized by concentrated production and spillover consumption. Tangshan and Tianjin serve as dual production cores, contributing 42.3% of production-side emissions, with over 80% of these emissions being exported to meet external demand; Beijing operates as a dominant consumption center, relying on external supply for nearly 80% of its consumption-based emissions. (2) The BTH urban agglomeration as a whole is caught in a dilemma of high-carbon lock-in and low-end output. Cities with high value added generally exhibit high carbon emissions. Notably, Beijing stands out as the sole city that has achieved a decoupling of economic gains from carbon responsibility, demonstrating a pattern of low carbon and high value added, while cities such as Handan and Xingtai face the challenge of high carbon and medium-to-low value added. (3) Key carbon flow pathways are becoming shorter in length and more internalized within the region. The cumulative contribution of the top 30 critical pathways increased from 7.0% to 9.2%, suggesting a concentration of carbon transmission along major industrial routes. These pathways are dominated by the steel, electricity, construction, and service sectors, with intra-regional flows accounting for over 90% of these critical transmission chains, highlighting the region's intense internal industrial interdependence. (4) The spatial pattern of embodied carbon transfer in the BTH urban agglomeration is characterized as predominantly internal and supplemented by external flows. Intra-regional flows account for the largest share and exhibit the simplest structural pathways. In contrast, interprovincial flows display more complex structural configurations but a declining overall contribution, while the share of international outflows continues to rise. This study provides scientific support for formulating precise and coordinated carbon reduction policies in the BTH region.