基于kRSEI的黄河流域生态环境质量时空演变及驱动因素研究
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国家自然科学基金面上项目(32572141);国家自然科学基金面上项目(32572139);陕西省林业科学院科技创新计划专项项目(SXLK2023-0218)


Spatiotemporal evolution of ecological environment quality and its driving factors in the Yellow River Basin based on kRSEI
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    摘要:

    聚焦于2000-2024年黄河流域生态环境质量的评价及驱动因素研究。基于MODIS(Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)数据,依托GEE(Google Earth Engine)云平台,采用主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis, PCA)构建了改进型遥感生态指数(Kernel-based Remote Sensing Ecological Index, kRSEI),结合Theil-Sen Median趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验、Hurst(Hurst Exponent)指数与变异系数(Coefficient of Variation, CV),对黄河流域生态环境质量的时空演变特征进行了分析。同时,利用Gradient Boosting模型与SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanations)算法探讨生态环境质量的主要驱动因素。结果表明:(1)kRSEI第一主成分(PC1)的方差贡献率为66.90%-78.05%,在各典型年份中均高于同期RSEI,且kNDVI在PC1中的载荷值整体高于NDVI,表明引入核方法增强了绿度信息在综合生态评价中的解释能力。(2)2000-2024年黄河流域kRSEI整体呈显著上升趋势(Slope=0.004 a-1,P<0.05),均值由0.36提升至0.52(多年平均值为0.46),空间格局表现为由北向南逐渐改善;SEN-MK分析显示67.67%的区域达到显著改善水平,而Hurst指数结果表明69.92%的区域未来可能呈现反持续性上升特征,仍存在趋势逆转风险。(3)土壤湿度(Soil Moisture, SM)、降水(Precipitation, PRE)与LUCC(Land use and land cover change, LUCC)是影响kRSEI空间异质性的主要驱动因子,其中SM的平均SHAP值最高(>0.06),PRE与LUCC的平均SHAP值均超过0.03,且水分条件与土地利用/土地覆盖变化之间的交互作用对生态环境质量变化的调控作用最为显著。研究结果为黄河流域生态环境质量评估与分区调控提供了定量依据。

    Abstract:

    This study focuses on the spatiotemporal variations of ecological environment quality and its driving factors in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2024. Based on MODIS (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data and the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, an improved Remote Sensing Ecological Index incorporating the kernel-based normalized difference vegetation index (kRSEI) was constructed using principal component analysis (PCA). The spatiotemporal evolution of ecological environment quality was analyzed by integrating the Theil-Sen median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, Hurst exponent, and coefficient of variation. In addition, a Gradient Boosting model combined with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was employed to identify the dominant driving factors of ecological environment quality. The results indicate that: (1) the first principal component (PC1) of kRSEI explains 66.90%-78.05% of the total variance, consistently higher than that of the traditional RSEI across representative years, and the loading of kNDVI on PC1 is generally higher than that of NDVI, demonstrating that the kernel-based approach enhances the representation of greenness information in integrated ecological assessment; (2) from 2000 to 2024, kRSEI in the Yellow River Basin exhibits a significant increasing trend (Slope=0.004 a-1, P< 0.05), with mean values increasing from 0.36 to 0.52 (multi-year average of 0.46). Spatially, ecological environment quality shows a gradual improvement from north to south. SEN-MK analysis reveals that 67.67% of the basin experienced significant improvement, whereas Hurst exponent results indicate that 69.92% of the areas may exhibit anti-persistent upward trends in the future, suggesting potential risks of trend reversal in some improved regions; (3) soil moisture (SM), precipitation (PRE), and land use and land cover change(LUCC) are the primary drivers of spatial heterogeneity for kRSEI. Among them, SM has the highest mean SHAP value (>0.06), while PRE and LUCC both exceed 0.03, and the interaction between water conditions and land use exerts the strongest regulatory effect on ecological environment quality. These findings provide a quantitative basis for ecological environment assessment and zoning regulation in the Yellow River Basin.

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赵庆杰,张学峰,何政政,朱玲,高冬阳,高天,邱玲.基于kRSEI的黄河流域生态环境质量时空演变及驱动因素研究.生态学报,2026,46(18):9968~9983

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