The enhancement of resource transformation efficiency in the environmental services industry plays an indispensable role in advancing the systematic process toward achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Relying on the DEA-Malmquist index model, this study dynamically measures the resource transformation efficiency of the environmental services industry in 30 provinces of China (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 2012 to 2023. By integrating Kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse analysis, traditional and spatial Markov chain models, and Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition, the study systematically reveals the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and sources of efficiency differences. On this basis, the fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) method is further introduced to identify three types of configuration paths that drive efficiency improvement from a multi-factor combination perspective. The main findings are as follows: ① In terms of temporal dynamics, the overall efficiency of the environmental services industry, as well as across the eight major economic regions, shows a stage-wise pattern of “fluctuation—decline—rebound.” ② Regarding spatial patterns, efficiency gradually shifts from the eastern to the central and western regions, with evident path dependence and spatial spillover effects, whereby high-efficiency environments in neighboring areas significantly promote local efficiency upgrades. ③ With respect to sources of disparity, spatial differentiation of efficiency across the eight economic regions is primarily driven by inter-regional gaps and super-variable density. ④ In terms of configuration paths, fsQCA identifies three key improvement models—industry structure–driven, policy–industry collaborative, and multi-factor synergistic—highlighting that different regional contexts can rely on distinct combinations of conditions to achieve efficiency gains. Overall, this research not only expands the theoretical scope and methodological framework of environmental services in the context of the green economy but also provides empirical evidence and practical pathways for regional governments to promote the development of the environmental services industry and accelerate progress toward the carbon neutrality goal.