2000-2020年鄂尔多斯生长季植被覆盖对气候变化和人类活动的响应
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鄂尔多斯市科技重大专项项目(ZD20232324);鄂尔多斯市重点研发计划项目(YF20250267);防沙治沙教育部工程研究中心开放课题(2024-B-1)


Response of vegetation cover to climate change and human activities during the growing season in Ordos from 2000 to 2020
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    摘要:

    鄂尔多斯市是我国黄河"几"字湾攻坚战的主战场,也是筑牢北方干旱半干旱地区生态屏障的重要区域。植被动态变化是表征区域生态恢复质量的重要指标之一,而气候变化和人类活动对鄂尔多斯生长季植被覆盖时空动态的贡献程度尚不清楚。基于GEE平台MODIS卫星数据分析鄂尔多斯市2000-2020年生长季(6-9月份)归一化植被指数(NDVI)时空变化,利用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析和Mann-Kendall显著性检验、偏相关和残差分析法揭示气候变化和人类活动的响应。研究表明:(1)2000-2020年鄂尔多斯市生长季NDVI均值整体呈波动上升趋势,平均增速为0.005/a,2011-2020年植被改善更明显;生长季NDVI地域差异显著,表现出东部高于西部地区的特点。(2)降水和气温对生长季植被产生不同程度的影响。生长季累计降水与NDVI呈正相关区域面积占比高达98.08%,其中受降水显著影响的区域占47.08%(P < 0.05),表明降水是驱动生长季植被变化的主要气候因子。(3)基于残差趋势分析,发现近21年来人类活动对生长季植被整体上呈正向效应,正相关区域约占研究区的86.12%;2000-2020年气候变化和人类活动对生长季NDVI变化的贡献率分别为25.87%和73.66%,表明人类活动为植被变化的主控因素。(4)气候变化与人类活动对植被变化的贡献具有显著空间异质性,气候变化以中低贡献为主,高贡献区(>60%)分布偏西,约占总面积的6.30%;而人类活动以高贡献为主,贡献区(>60%)主要分布于东部地区,约占总面积的80.06%,表明鄂尔多斯生长季NDVI变化呈现"东人西气"的空间异质性格局。

    Abstract:

    Ordos city is a key area in the ecological restoration efforts of the Yellow River "Ji"-shaped bend region and plays a vital role in strengthening the ecological barrier in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China. Vegetation dynamics are an important indicator of the effectiveness of regional ecological restoration. However, the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation cover during the growing season in Ordos remain unclear. Based on MODIS satellite data from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in Ordos during the growing seasons (from June to September) from 2000 to 2020. To quantify the responses of climate change and human activities, Theil-Sen median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall significance test, partial correlation, and residual analysis were applied. The key findings showed that: (1) Temporally, the growing season NDVI in Ordos showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2020, with an average increase rate of 0.005/a, and more notable vegetation improvement during 2011-2020. Spatially, NDVI exhibited significant regional differences, with higher values in the eastern part compared to the western part. (2) Precipitation and temperature exerted varying degrees of influence on vegetation during the growing season. The area exhibiting a positive correlation between cumulative growing-season precipitation and NDVI accounted for as much as 98.08% of the total study region, with 47.08% of these areas being significantly influenced by precipitation (P < 0.05). This demonstrated that precipitation served as the primary climatic driver of vegetation dynamics during the growing season. (3) Residual trend analysis revealed that over the past 21 years, human activities have generally exerted a positive impact on vegetation during the growing season, with positively correlated areas accounting for approximately 86.12% of the study area. Overall, from 2000 to 2020, the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to NDVI changes were 25.87% and 73.66%, respectively, suggesting that human activities were the dominant factor. (4) The contributions of climate change and human activities exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity. Climate change primarily contributed lowly to moderately, with high-contribution areas (>60%) concentrated in the western region, accounting for approximately 6.30% of the total area. In contrast, human activities mainly contributed highly with high-contribution areas (>60%) primarily distributed in the eastern region, covering about 80.06% of the total area. This indicated that the spatial heterogeneity pattern of driving NDVI changes during the growing season in Ordos showed an 'eastern human-western climate’ distribution.

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张晓云,张兵,郭跃,张晓娟,刘焱序,李宗善,刘见波.2000-2020年鄂尔多斯生长季植被覆盖对气候变化和人类活动的响应.生态学报,2026,46(4):2120~2134

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