The superposition of high-intensity human activities and extensive land use patterns led to the fragmentation of coastal shelterbelts, and the overall forest system on Dongshan Island. This resulted in the severe degradation of the original ecological barrier function for windbreak and sand fixation. Reshaping the island's overall windbreak ecological network was therefore a critical pathway to resolving the ecological security dilemma of islands. Accurately simulating land use change provided the basis for reliably reflecting the evolution of the island ecosystem's windbreak function and constructing this windbreak ecological network. This study integrated multi-scenario simulation with the construction of an island windbreak ecological network. Using the PLUS model, it simulated three development scenarios (Natural Development, Economic Development, and Ecological Protection) for Dongshan Island in 2030. Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) and the Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model were employed to identify core windbreak source areas. A comprehensive windbreak resistance surface for the island was constructed by comprehensively considering the risk of strong wind disasters and the windbreak function of forests. Important windbreak corridors for Dongshan Island were then extracted and selected. The characteristics and evolutionary trends of Dongshan Island's windbreak spatial elements under the three 2030 scenarios were compared with the 2020 baseline. The results indicated that: (1) In the 2030 multi-scenario land use simulations, cultivated land and water body areas decreased to some extent under all three scenarios, while construction land area increased. Forest land area increased under both the Economic Development and Ecological Protection scenarios, aligning with the goal of island ecological conservation. (2) In 2020, areas at moderate-high and high risk of wind disasters accounted for 72% of the island, indicating a persistently high risk level. By 2030, the Natural Development and Economic Development scenarios showed significant risk escalation trends. Compared to 2020, the area of medium-high risk areas increased by 15% and 13% respectively, while the high-risk areas expanded by 3.1% and 3.3% respectively. (3) Compared to 2020, the area of core windbreak source areas expanded to varying degrees under all three 2030 scenarios, with notable expansion under the Natural Development and Economic Development scenarios (both exceeding 5 km²). The number of windbreak corridors also showed an increasing trend, particularly secondary corridors, which were mainly concentrated in the central county administrative area and the eastern coastal zone. Based on these findings, the study proposed a "One Core, Four Zones, One Belt, Multiple Nodes" windbreak security pattern strategy to guide Dongshan Island's ecological protection and socio-economic development. The study provided a scientific basis for building resilient island windbreak networks under diverse future scenarios.