基于地质灾害敏感性的北疆地区生态安全格局分析
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国家自然科学基金项目(42161049,41761019,41061052);西部地区人才培养特别项目(201408655089)


Analysis of ecological security pattern in Northern Xinjiang region based on geological disaster sensitivity
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National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant numbers 42161049, 41761019, and 41061052) and the Special Project for Talent Development in the Western Region (grant number 201408655089)

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    摘要:

    基于水土保持功能和地质灾害敏感性的生态安全格局对于维护区域生态稳定和灾害预警具有重要的作用。以北疆为研究区,采用通用土壤侵蚀方程模型(RUSLE)和形态学空间格局分析(MSPA)识别生态源地,使用随机森林(RF)模型评估地质灾害易发性并用其结果修正阻力面,利用电路理论识别了北疆地区的生态廊道、生态夹点和障碍点,构建了北疆的生态安全格局。结果表明:(1)生态源地数量为20个,面积为81763.56 km2,占研究区总面积的20.96%;(2)选取地层岩性和距断层的距离等10个因子进行地质灾害敏感性评价,受试者特征曲线(ROC)显示曲线下面积的值为0.89,接近于1且地质灾害敏感性评价与历史灾害点相比高度重合,说明模拟结果可靠,可用于阻力面修正,修正后显示北疆地区高阻力值分布在伊犁河谷、塔城地区和阿尔泰山脉北部;(3)生态廊道共有37条,总长度为2914.86 km,重要廊道有19条,长度为424.65 km,一般廊道有18条,长度为2490.21 km,生态夹点有53个,生态障碍点有6个。(4)通过地质灾害敏感性和安全格局构建出"三圈层"的生态修复策略,分别为核心圈、缓冲圈和协调圈,根据不同区域面临的生态问题,提出相应的保护对策,研究的结果对北疆地区生态安全状况和地质灾害防范具有重要保护意义。

    Abstract:

    The construction of ecological security pattern, incorporating both soil and water conservation functions and geological disaster susceptibility, is critically important for preserving regional ecological stability and establishing robust early warning systems for natural disasters. This investigation centered on Northern Xinjiang utilized an integrated methodology to identify and analyze key components of the regional ecological structure. Ecological sources were delineated through the application of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model, which estimates potential soil erosion, and Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA), which identifies core habitat areas based on land cover patterns. Geological disaster susceptibility was comprehensively assessed using the Random Forest (RF) machine learning model, and the resulting susceptibility map was effectively employed to calibrate and modify the baseline resistance surface, thereby enhancing its accuracy. Building upon this refined resistance surface, circuit theory was implemented to simulate ecological connectivity and precisely identify ecological corridors, pinch points-areas critical for maintaining connectivity-and barrier points that impede ecological flows. The key findings were as follows: (1) Twenty distinct ecological source areas were identified, encompassing a total area of 81,763.56 km2, which accounted for 20.96% of the total study area.. (2) Geological disaster susceptibility was evaluated using ten factors, including lithology and distance to faults. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis yielded an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.89, approaching 1. High spatial coincidence between the susceptibility assessment and historical disaster points confirmed the model's reliability for resistance surface modification. After modification, high-resistance values were predominantly distributed in the Ili River Valley, Ta cheng Prefecture, and the northern Altai Mountains. (3) The ecological network analysis identified 37 ecological corridors totaling 2,914.86 km in length. This network consists of 19 important corridors (424.65 km) vital for regional connectivity and 18 general corridors (2,490.21 km). Furthermore, 53 ecological pinch points and 6 significant ecological barrier points were pinpointed, highlighting priority areas for conservation and restoration efforts. (4) Synthesizing the findings on geological disaster susceptibility and ecological security patterns, a structured "Three-Zone" ecological restoration framework-comprising core, buffer, and coordination zones-was developed. Specific protection strategies and tailored management measures were proposed according to the unique ecological challenges and functional positioning of each zone. The outcomes of this research provide a scientifically-grounded foundation and practical decision-support tools for ecological conservation planning, territorial spatial optimization, and disaster risk reduction initiatives in Northern Xinjiang. The results provided significant insights for safeguarding ecological security and enhancing geological disaster prevention in Northern Xinjiang.

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李芳,阿布都热合曼·哈力克,赵沁华,唐华,罗健梅,程中岳,姚磊.基于地质灾害敏感性的北疆地区生态安全格局分析.生态学报,2026,46(6):3206~3218

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