生态保护红线监测评估预警的关键问题与技术路径
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国家重点研发计划课题(2023YFC3804003);自然资源部部省合作项目(2023ZRBSHZ042,2023ZRBSHZ043)


Monitoring, assessment and early-warning of ecological conservation redlines: key issues and technical pathways
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    摘要:

    生态保护红线监测评估预警是实现重要生态空间精细化管控的重要抓手,也是保障生态保护红线管理制度有效实施和可持续发展的关键支撑。针对当前生态保护红线监测评估预警技术体系仍存在框架不完善、目标内容不明确和实施路径不明晰等问题,在系统梳理国内外生态监测评估研究基础上,深入剖析了生态保护红线监测评估预警面临的关键技术瓶颈。通过理论解析,明确了生态保护红线监测评估预警的概念内涵,构建了系统化总体框架,并从监测、评估、预警三个维度详细阐述了具体内容和技术路径,研究结果可为完善生态保护红线监测监管体系提供理论依据和方法支撑。

    Abstract:

    Ecological conservation redlines (ECRL) monitoring, assessment and early-warning systems serve as critical instruments for precise ecological spatial governance, ensuring effective ECRL implementation and sustainable management. However, existing technical frameworks face challenges including structural gaps, ambiguous objectives, and unclear implementation pathways. This paper systematically reviewed domestic and international ecological monitoring and assessment research, then thoroughly analyzed the key technical bottlenecks in ECRL monitoring, assessment and early-warning systems. Through theoretical analysis, the paper proposed that ECRL monitoring, assessment and early-warning should address three hierarchical objectives: at the foundational level, controlling anthropogenic disturbances through rigid constraint mechanisms to ensure that human activity intensity aligns with ecological carrying capacity; at the intermediate level, evaluating ecosystem integrity and service functions to support conservation and spatial optimization; at the advanced level, constructing an intelligent regulatory platform integrating multi-source data and multi-model systems. Corresponding to these three objectives, the technical framework for ECRL monitoring, assessment and early-warning should also focus on three dimensions: first, comprehensively understanding the ecological baseline and dynamically monitoring anthropogenic activities and changes in ecological elements; second, quantifying ecosystem status, identifying degradation risks, evaluating conservation effectiveness, and facilitating quality improvement; and finally, building an intelligent early warning platform to enable coordinated response mechanisms and support data-driven decision-making. The monitoring of ECRL must systematically track various types and intensity levels of human activities as well as key ecosystem characteristics including site conditions, essential ecological elements, and quality indicators. The assessment framework requires distinct approaches at different spatial scales, with macro-scale evaluations focusing on overall ecosystem integrity and landscape-level synergies, while micro-scale analyses examine specific ecological components to uncover fundamental mechanisms. This integrated monitoring and assessment system supports a dual-dimensional early-warning framework comprising immediate alert systems and trend forecasting capabilities. The real-time warning system was used to detect and prioritize responses to unauthorized development activities and natural disasters, ensuring timely regulatory action. The predictive warning system applies sophisticated spatio-temporal analysis and ecosystem modeling techniques to identify critical thresholds, detect gradual degradation patterns, and forecast potential risk scenarios. The study further proposed an integrated technical pathway combining multi-source data platforms, analytical methods for early-warning models, and practical applications to enhance ECRL policy implementation. By developing a cohesive "conceptual definition-content analysis-technical implementation" framework, this research provided theoretical and methodological support for advancing ECRL monitoring and governance systems.

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陈瑜琦,郭旭东,杨传强,于少康,孟超,汪晓帆.生态保护红线监测评估预警的关键问题与技术路径.生态学报,2026,46(2):605~617

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