气候变化对海洋生态系统的风险评估
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国家重点研发计划(2022YFF0802203)


Climate change risk assessment for marine ecosystems: progress, challenges, and future perspectives
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    摘要:

    气候变化正以前所未有的速度重塑海洋生态系统,成为全球海洋生物多样性与生态安全面临的重要威胁。作为气候风险评估的主导范式,IPCC框架在海洋领域的应用仍面临理论与实践脱节、关键指标内涵模糊及方法适用性不足。立足于IPCC气候框架,依循"初期探索-框架发展-系统整合"三个阶段,追溯了气候脆弱性到气候风险理论的演化脉络,并结合国际气候治理背景,系统回顾了该理论在海洋领域中的应用进程。通过对1998-2024年间101篇涉海文献进行文献计量分析,本研究从理论框架和实践评估两方面划分当前的研究主题。并围绕"致灾因子-暴露-脆弱性"三大核心维度,按照维度-一级指标层-二级指标的层级结构梳理了海洋生态系统的气候风险评估指标,揭示了各层级指标的研究偏好。同时,总结了现有三种主流的气候脆弱性与风险评估方法的特征。研究发现,IPCC气候风险框架在海洋生态系统的应用存在明显滞后。综合性风险评估多集中于渔业,其他关键生态系统的评估存在明显缺口,且对生态适应能力的量化研究仍显薄弱。未来研究应聚焦于构建以"致灾因子-暴露-脆弱性"为核心的协同评估框架,强化对海洋适应能力的动态评估,并深入解析气候变化多重气候风险因子间的非线性交互作用、海洋生物的级联效应与跨系统反馈,特别是加强我国在海洋综合观测和智能评估技术方面的适应性实践。本研究不仅丰富了气候变化对海洋生态风险的理论体系,也为构建科学、精准的风险评估框架提供了理论依据与实践参考。

    Abstract:

    Climate change was altering marine ecosystems at an unprecedented rate, posing significant threats to global marine biodiversity and ecological security. As the dominant paradigm for global climate risk assessment, the IPCC climate framework faced significant challenges in marine ecosystems applications. These challenges included a disconnect between theory and practice, which often hindered the operationalization of its core concepts in specific marine contexts; ambiguities in conceptual indicators; and limited methodological applicability. Adopting the IPCC framework, this study traced the theoretical evolution from climate vulnerability to climate risk through three stages:early exploration, framework development, and systematic integration.It systematically reviewed the application of these theories in marine science within the context of international climate governance to provide a comprehensive overview of the field's progression. Through a bibliometric analysis of 101 marine-related studies published between 1998 and 2024, this study categorized current research themes into theoretical frameworks and practical assessments. Centered on the three core dimensions of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, we established a hierarchical structure including dimension, primary indicator and secondary indicator for climate risk assessment indicators in marine ecosystems, providing an organized inventory for future research. We revealed the different levels of indicator preferences within the three core dimensions based on the frequency of indicator occurrences, thereby highlighting areas of intense research focus alongside those potentially neglected. Concurrently, this study summarized the characteristics of three mainstream methods for assessing climate vulnerability and risk. This study revealed that the application of the IPCC climate risk framework to marine ecosystems exhibits a significant lag, especially when compared to its uptake in terrestrial systems. Comprehensive risk assessments were predominantly concentrated on fisheries, leaving a notable gap in the evaluation of other critical ecosystems or regions such as coral reefs, mangroves, and polar regions. Furthermore, quantitative research on ecological adaptive capacity remains underdeveloped, a limitation that severely hinders proactive management and conservation efforts. This study proposed that future research should prioritize developing a collaborative hazard-exposure-vulnerability assessment framework, emphasizing dynamic quantification of marine adaptive capacity, and thoroughly analyzing nonlinear interactions among climate risk factors, cascading effects in marine organisms, and cross-system feedbacks, as these dynamics can lead to unexpected and amplified ecological responses. Special attention was warranted for strengthening adaptive practices in China's marine integrated observation and intelligent assessment technologies. These findings enriched the theoretical foundation of marine climate risk. It provided a theoretical basis and practical reference for building robust and precise risk assessment frameworks.

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张典,奉龄洋,方秦华,陈彬,马志远,程兰,赵子睿,阚志毅,俞炜炜,葛飞扬.气候变化对海洋生态系统的风险评估.生态学报,2026,46(2):663~676

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