基于多源数据融合的辽宁省旅游业碳排放脱钩效应
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国家自然科学基金项目(52379021)


Research on the decoupling effect of tourism carbon emissions in Liaoning Province based on multi-source data fusion
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    摘要:

    基于"碳达峰碳中和"战略背景,厘清旅游业经济增长与碳排放之间的脱钩效应与驱动机制,是实现旅游业绿色低碳转型的关键环节。针对现有研究碳排放测度粗略、忽视城市间差异等问题,以辽宁省2004-2022年为研究期,创新性地将"自下而上"旅游业碳排放核算方法与熵权法相结合,精准核算了旅游业碳排放总量,并基于夜光遥感与城市旅游特征等多源数据分解市域碳排放贡献。同时,基于Tapio和GTWR模型,从时空维度深入分析了旅游业碳排放与经济增长的脱钩效应及其驱动机制。结果表明:(1)辽宁省旅游碳排放2014年达峰382.23万t,而2020-2022年则下降了47.95%,其中旅游交通占比76.82%,空间上呈现以沈阳、大连为高值中心轴的双峰结构,并向外围递减;(2)研究期整体呈弱脱钩状态,2019年脱钩效果最佳,12市实现强脱钩;(3)城镇化水平、居民消费能力和经济发展水平对脱钩具有显著促进作用,平均回归系数为1.248、0.209和0.108,旅游能耗和产业结构则起抑制效应。研究突破尺度限制,提升碳排放测算精度,为辽宁省制定差异化减排政策与构建低碳旅游体系提供支撑。

    Abstract:

    Under the strategic background of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality", clarifying the decoupling effect and driving mechanism between tourism economic growth and carbon emissions was a key link in achieving the green and low-carbon transition of the tourism industry. To address the existing problems of rough carbon emission measurement and neglected inter-city differences, this paper selected Liaoning Province from 2004 to 2022 as the research scope and innovatively combined the "bottom-up" tourism carbon accounting method with the entropy weight method to accurately calculate tourism-related emissions. Meanwhile, based on nighttime light remote sensing data and urban tourism characteristic data such as the total number of tourists, total tourism revenue, and the number of 4A and 5A scenic spots, the study dissected the carbon emission contributions of different cities. Moreover, based on the Tapio model and GTWR model, the decoupling effect and driving mechanism of carbon emissions from the tourism industry and economic growth were analyzed in depth from the spatiotemporal dimension. The results indicated that: (1) The tourism carbon emissions in Liaoning Province showed a trend of first gradually increasing and then significantly decreasing. The peak was reached in 2014 at 3.8223 million tons, and then decreased by 47.95% from 2020 to 2022. There were significant differences in carbon emissions among various sectors of the tourism industry, with tourism transportation accounting for 76.82%. Spatially, the emissions form a bimodal structure centered on Shenyang and Dalian, decreasing outward from these centers, and the eastern part was significantly higher than the western part. (2) The carbon emissions of Liaoning Province's tourism industry overall exhibited a weak decoupling state with fluctuating changes, achieving a positive situation where the growth of the tourism economy outpaced the growth of tourism carbon emissions. In 2019, the decoupling effect was the best, with 12 cities achieving strong decoupling. In 2022, the decoupling state was the worst, with 8 cities showing weak negative decoupling, indicating an adverse situation. (3) The decoupling trend of carbon emissions in Liaoning Province's tourism industry was the result of multiple factors working together. Urbanization level, residents' consumption capacity, and economic development significantly promoted decoupling, with average regression coefficients of 1.248, 0.209, and 0.108, respectively. In contrast, tourism energy consumption and industrial structure had an inhibitory effect. This study broke through the limitations of scale and improved the accuracy of carbon emission calculations, providing support for Liaoning Province to formulate differentiated emission-reduction policies and build a low-carbon tourism system.

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姜雪梅,曹永强,么嘉棋.基于多源数据融合的辽宁省旅游业碳排放脱钩效应.生态学报,2025,45(24):12401~12415

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