Xinjiang is rich in grassland resources, which serve as an important support for the development of animal husbandry. Ambrosia trifida is a key managed alien invasive species in China, and studying the distribution of its potential suitable areas is of great significance for the early monitoring, prevention and control of grassland invasion. Based on 388 species distribution points and 32 environmental factors, this study used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential invasion areas of Ambrosia trifida in different grassland types in Xinjiang under current and future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s) climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). The results showed that: (1) The AUC values of the model were all greater than 0.90, indicating stable prediction results; (2) The key environmental factors affecting its distribution were, in order: standard deviation of temperature seasonality (Bio4), human footprint (HF), precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), and precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13); (3) Under current conditions, the total area of suitable habitats for Ambrosia trifida is 14.96×10? km2, accounting for approximately 9.25 % of Xinjiang’s total area, and is mainly concentrated in the northwestern part of Xinjiang. In terms of distribution across grassland types, except for alpine deserts, the other 10 grassland types are at risk of invasion, with a total potential invasion area of 98,164.74 km2, accounting for roughly 17.00 % of Xinjiang’s total grassland area. Among these, temperate deserts, mountain meadows, and temperate steppes face relatively high potential invasion risks; (4) In the future, the area of suitable habitats for Ambrosia trifida was predicted to decrease slightly, with an overall change rate ranging from 0.51 % to 15.06 %, and it was predicted to still be mainly concentrated in the northwestern part of Xinjiang. Moreover, most areas was predicted to remain stable, and the contracted area was predicted to generally exceed the expanded area. Among all scenarios, the contraction rate was highest under the 2070s-SSP585 scenario (high greenhouse gas emissions), indicating that increased greenhouse gas emissions does not lead to its rapid spread. In terms of distribution, Ambrosia trifida was expected to affect 11 grassland types in the future, with its total potential invasion area fluctuating between 91,435.70 km2 and 99,075.31 km2, accounting for approximately 15.83 % to 17.16 % of Xinjiang’s total grassland area. Its potential invasion distribution is mainly concentrated in temperate deserts, mountain meadows, and temperate steppes, covering a relatively wide area, and its distribution centers were projected to migrate to the southeast and northeast respectively.