西南地区耕地生态安全和生态福利绩效空间溢出效应、门槛阈值及政策启示
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国家社会科学基金一般项目(23BJY156);国家自然科学基金项目(41901214);重庆市教委人文社科规划项目(25SKGH327)


Spatial spillover effects, threshold thresholds, and policy implications of cultivated land ecological security on ecological welfare performance in southwestern China
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    摘要:

    耕地保护是保障耕地生态安全,改善耕地生态福利绩效,提升农民民生福祉的重要基础。基于2010-2022年西南地区云、贵、川、渝4省市49个研究单元,采用包含非期望产出的超效率SBM模型、空间滞后模型和门槛效应模型等,评估了研究区耕地的生态安全、生态福利绩效水平,以及耕地生态安全对生态福利绩效的影响、关键影响因素临界阈值。结果表明:1)2010-2022年研究区耕地生态安全和生态福利绩效水平整体呈上升趋势,空间格局均呈"北高南低"的特征,高值区集中在四川盆地,低值区则集中在云南南部,空间异质性显著,但趋于弱化,呈均衡化发展趋势。2)耕地生态安全对生态福利绩效具有显著的正向作用,耕地生态安全通过自然价值溢出和经验技术溢出影响耕地生态福利绩效,表现出明显的正向邻近空间溢出效应。3)耕地生态安全对生态福利绩效的影响在耕地经营规模、作物种植结构上存在明显门槛临界阈值,阈值超过0.516 hm2/人、48.901%时,正向作用显著增强。未来耕地保护应着重因地制宜推进适度规模经营,调整作物种植结构,加强区域合作,保障耕地生态安全,促进耕地生态福利绩效持续提升。

    Abstract:

    The protection of cultivated land serves as a crucial foundation for ensuring its ecological security, improving the performance of ecological welfare derived from cultivated land, and enhancing the well-being of farmers. Based on panel data from 49 study units across four provinces and municipalities-Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Chongqing in Southwest China from 2010 to 2022, this study employed analytical methods including the super-efficiency SBM model with undesirable outputs, spatial lag model, and threshold regression model. It evaluated the ecological security level of cultivated land and the performance level of its ecological welfare in the study area, along with the impact of cultivated land ecological security on ecological welfare performance and the critical thresholds of key influencing factors. The results showed that: 1) From 2010 to 2022, both the ecological security level of cultivated land and its ecological welfare performance exhibited an overall upward trend across the study area. The spatial pattern of both was generally characterized as "high in the north and low in the south." High-value areas for both indicators were concentrated in the Sichuan Basin, while low-value areas were primarily located in southern Yunnan. Significant spatial heterogeneity was observed, although it gradually weakened, indicating a trend toward balanced development. 2) Cultivated land ecological security exerted a significant positive effect on its ecological welfare performance. It influenced ecological welfare performance through natural value spillover and experiential technology spillover, demonstrating a notable positive spatial spillover effect to adjacent areas. Improvements in the ecological security of cultivated land in one region not only enhanced its own ecological welfare performance but also had a positive effect on that of neighboring regions. 3) The impact of cultivated land ecological security on its ecological welfare performance exhibited distinct single-threshold effects for both farmland operation scale and crop planting structure. The critical threshold values were 0.516 hm2 per person and 48.901%, respectively. When these thresholds were exceeded, the positive non-linear influence strengthened significantly. At the same time, the thresholds for farmland operation scale and crop planting structure exhibited significant regional differences.Future regional cropland protection policies should emphasize locally adapted strategies to promote appropriately scaled farmland management, rationally adjust crop planting structures, and optimize the proportion and varieties of economic crops. Efforts should also be strengthened to enhance inter-regional cooperation and exchange, further safeguard cropland ecological security, and foster the continuous improvement of farmland ecological welfare performance.

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周恒阳,张军以,董文卓,杨晓雪,张彬洁.西南地区耕地生态安全和生态福利绩效空间溢出效应、门槛阈值及政策启示.生态学报,2026,46(4):1916~1930

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