气候适应型城市试点政策对城市可持续性的影响——基于双重差分模型的实证分析
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中国人民大学

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目);中国人民大学2024年度拔尖创新人才培育资助计划


The effect of pilot climate-adapted city policy on urban sustainability: An empirical analysis based on difference-in-differences model
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1.Renmin University of China;2.Renmin University

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The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan);The Outstanding Innovative Talents Cultivation Funded Programs 2024 of Renmin University of China

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    摘要:

    建设气候适应型城市是保障城市安全运行、推动可持续发展的重要举措。聚焦气候适应型城市建设试点对城市可持续性的多维影响及其作用机理,以2011—2020年中国269个地级市的面板数据为研究样本,基于双重差分模型进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)气候适应型城市试点政策显著提升了城市可持续性(系数=1.057,P<0.01),且政策效果存在2年的时滞效应。(2)政策在低和中降水量城市中显著提升了可持续性,但在高降水量城市中无显著作用;同时,政策效果在经济发展水平较高的城市更为突出。(3)人力资本培养和科学技术创新是气候适应型城市建设试点政策提升城市可持续性的重要渠道。本研究通过实证分析验证了气候适应型城市试点政策对城市可持续性的积极作用,并提出了优化政策实施的建议。

    Abstract:

    Building climate-adapted cities is vital for urban security and sustainable development. Using 269 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2020 as research samples, this study investigated the effect of pilot climate-adapted city policy on urban sustainability and the underlying mechanisms through differential-in-difference modeling. The findings revealed that: (1) The pilot policy significantly boosted urban sustainability (coefficient = 1.057, P < 0.01) with a two-year policy effectiveness lag. (2) The policy had a significant positive effect in cities with low and moderate precipitation but no significant impact in high-precipitation cities; meanwhile, the policy effect was more pronounced in cities with higher economic development levels. (3) Human capital development and technological innovation were key pathways through which the pilot policy improved urban sustainability. This study confirms the pilot climate-adapted city policy's positive role in promoting urban sustainability and offers suggestions for better policy implementation.

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于超月,赵翔宇,张正峰.气候适应型城市试点政策对城市可持续性的影响——基于双重差分模型的实证分析.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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