长江中游城市群碳解锁空间关联网络及影响因素
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湖南省教育厅优秀青年基金项目(24B0468);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2025JJ50441)


Spatial association network of carbon unlocking and influencing factors in the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River
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    摘要:

    长江中游城市群在我国区域发展格局中占据重要地位,其碳解锁水平对推动长江经济带绿色发展、助力实现碳达峰碳中和目标意义重大。以2011—2022年长江中游城市群27个城市为研究对象,运用社会网络分析和空间杜宾模型等方法,从产业、制度、科技、文化四个维度构建碳解锁水平指标体系,探究碳解锁空间关联网络及影响因素。研究结果表明:①在空间格局演变上,环鄱阳湖城市群碳解锁水平相对武汉城市圈和环长株潭城市群更高,南昌、武汉对周边城市存在技术溢出的辐射效应。②区域差异特征上,泰尔指数经历先升后降的动态过程,总体差异以区域内差异为主导,其中环鄱阳湖城市群的区域内差异贡献率最高,武汉城市圈贡献率波动显著,环长株潭城市群贡献率呈下降趋势,而区域间差异贡献率虽低但近年呈递增态势。③网络联系方面,长江中游城市群碳解锁网络关联度保持高位,强连通性显著,网络密度持续攀升、效率下降、等级度降低;以武汉和南昌代表的环鄱阳湖城市群和武汉城市圈的核心城市构成的“净溢出板块”通过技术、政策辐射带动周边发展;萍乡、武汉、宜昌和黄冈等市在网络中发挥着中介作用。④在影响因素方面,富裕程度与互联网发展对本地碳解锁产生显著正向直接效应,社会消费则具有负向作用;产业结构、技术水平、人口规模、互联网发展及富裕程度存在负向空间溢出效应,而产业结构与技术水平的总效应表现为正向驱动,人口规模与互联网的总效应呈现负向抑制。

    Abstract:

    The urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River holds a significant position in China's regional development pattern, and its carbon unlocking level is of great significance for promoting the green development of the Yangtze River economic belt and helping to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Taking 27 cities in the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2011 to 2022 as the research objects, using methods such as social network analysis and spatial Durbin model, this paper constructs an index system of carbon unlocking level from four dimensions: industry, system, technology, and culture, and explores the spatial association network and influencing factors of carbon unlocking. The research results show that: ① In terms of the evolution of spatial pattern, the carbon unlocking level of The Poyang Lake City Group is relatively higher than that of the Wuhan Metropolitan Area and the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration, and nanchang and wuhan have a radiation effect of technological spillover on surrounding cities. ② In terms of regional difference characteristics, the Theil index has experienced a dynamic process of first rising and then falling. The overall difference is dominated by intra-regional differences, among which the intra-regional difference contribution rate of The Poyang Lake City Group is the highest, the contribution rate of the Wuhan Metropolitan Area fluctuates significantly, the contribution rate of the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration shows a downward trend, while the inter-regional difference contribution rate is low but has shown an increasing trend in recent years. ③ In terms of network connection, the carbon unlocking network of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has maintained a high degree of association, significant strong connectivity, and the network density continues to climb, while the efficiency decreases and the hierarchy decreases. The "net spillover plate" composed of core cities in The Poyang Lake City Group and Wuhan Metropolitan Area represented by wuhan and nanchang drives the development of surrounding areas through technology and policy radiation; cities such as pingxiang, wuhan, yichang, and huanggang play an intermediary role in the network. ④ In terms of influencing factors, the level of affluence and Internet development have a significant positive direct effect on local carbon unlocking, while social consumption has a negative effect; industrial structure, technical level, population size, Internet development, and affluence have a negative spatial spillover effect, while the total effect of industrial structure and technical level shows a positive drive, and the total effect of population size and Internet shows a negative inhibition.

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李华金,黄嘉信,狄亚轩.长江中游城市群碳解锁空间关联网络及影响因素.生态学报,2025,45(14):7065~7079

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