数字化驱动下森林碳汇密度变化的驱动因素及组态路径
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国家社会科学基金项目(24BGL019)


Factor decomposition and grouping pathways for digitally driven changes in forest carbon sink density
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    摘要:

    森林碳汇密度是刻画森林碳汇容量的关键指标,探究数字化驱动下森林碳汇密度变化的因素分解及多重组态路径提升对实现"双碳"目标,打造中国绿色碳库具有重要的现实意义。基于数字化应用背景,以投入产出结构的资源配置视角,提出"驱动因素识别-组态路径分析"的渐进式研究逻辑,构建中国森林碳汇密度变化的驱动因素指数分解模型,以分解结果生成前因条件,通过必要性分析和组态路径方法,提出森林碳汇密度的多重提升路径。研究表明:(1)中国森林碳汇密度呈现小幅度的上升趋势,地区森林碳汇密度高低为"西部地区>中部地区>东部地区",森林碳汇密度重心呈现"东北-西南"的转移趋势。林业数字化投入水平呈现整体上升的发展趋势;重心转移方向为"东南-西北",转移幅度较大;(2)数字化相关驱动因素分解结果中,各省份存在"劳动密集型数字化协同驱动"和"数字化替代转型协同驱动"的二元驱动模式,且该模式存在区域互斥性;森林病虫鼠害相关驱动因素分解结果表征出当前生态系统的脆弱性特征。省份主导驱动因素的演变呈现"资本深化-数字化转型-再资本深化"的螺旋发展模式,反映了数字化驱动效能的边际效益递减特征。地区间主导驱动因素的演变呈现"东部-西部-中部"的数字化扩散梯度效应;(3)组态路径分析中,提出生态防护型数字化驱动路径、劳动密集型数字化驱动路径、综合替代型数字化驱动路径和技术服务型数字化驱动路径是实现高森林碳汇密度的多重路径,且四条路径中的劳动数字化密集水平和数字化替代转型水平核心条件满足二元驱动模式的互斥性特征。

    Abstract:

    Forest carbon sink density is a key indicator for assessing forest carbon sink capacity. The rapid development driven by digitalization has provided new application tools for precise monitoring of forest carbon sinks, pest and disease early warning systems, and dynamic management of forest land area. However, due to the limitations of technological applications and the complexity of ecological functions, the digitalization-driven models and application pathways for forest carbon sinks still have significant room for improvement and development. Therefore, exploring the factor decomposition of changes in forest carbon sink density under digitalization-driven conditions and the improvement of multi-component structural pathways holds significant practical significance for achieving the "dual carbon" goals and building China's green carbon sink. Based on the application context of digitalization-driven approaches, this study adopts a resource allocation perspective from the input-output structure and innovatively proposes a progressive research logic of "driving factor identification-configuration path analysis." It constructs a driving factor index decomposition model for changes in China's forest carbon sink density, uses the decomposition results to generate prerequisite conditions, and through necessity analysis and configuration path methods, proposes multiple enhancement pathways for forest carbon sink density. The results showed that: (1) China's forest carbon sink density exhibited a slight upward trend, with regional rankings following western>central>eastern regions. The density centroid shifted from northeast to southwest. The level of digital forestry inputs exhibited an overall upward trend, with its centroid shifting significantly from the southeast to the northwest; (2) In the decomposition results of digitization-related driving factors, there was a binary driving mode of "labor-intensive digital synergy drive" and "digital substitution transformation synergy drive" in each province, and the mode was regionally exclusive; the decomposition results of forest pest and rodent pest-related driving factors indicated the vulnerability characteristics of the current ecosystem. The evolution of provincial dominant drivers showed a spiral development pattern of "capital deepening-digital transformation-capital deepening", reflecting the diminishing marginal benefits of the effectiveness of the digitalization drive. The evolution of the dominant drivers among regions showed the gradient effect of digitalization diffusion of " East-West-Central "; (3) In the analysis of group paths, it was proposed that ecological protective digital drive path, labor-intensive digital drive path, integrated alternative digital drive path and technical service digital drive path were multiple paths to achieve high forest carbon sink density, and the core conditions of labor digital intensity level and digital alternative transformation level in the four paths satisfied the mutual exclusivity characteristics of the binary drive model. Additionally, in the context of rapid digitalization, we discuss the diminishing marginal benefits of digitalization-driven forest carbon sink density and the rationality of the proposed incremental research logic. Through in-depth comparisons with existing research, we aim to provide scientific recommendations that are more aligned with the contemporary context and ecological sustainability.

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黄衍,汪佳伟,郁涵婷,林金煌,张梦娇,戴永务.数字化驱动下森林碳汇密度变化的驱动因素及组态路径.生态学报,2026,46(2):1052~1067

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