1961-2023年中国气候舒适日数变化及其影响因子
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中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J071);国家气候中心创新团队项目(NCCCXTD002)


Research on the changes of climate comfort days and influencing factors in China from 1961 to 2023
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    摘要:

    基于1961-2023年中国2093个地面气象观测站的日平均气温、风速和相对湿度资料,研究了中国气候舒适日数的时空分布变化、影响因子特征及相对贡献。结果表明:1961-2023年全国平均年气候舒适日数为186.9d,总体呈显著增加趋势,增幅为2.9d/10a,气候舒适日数无明显年代际转折。在空间分布上,多年平均的中国年气候舒适日数在中东部地区呈现由北向南增多,夏秋季舒适日数多于冬春季。近60多年来,中国平均气候舒适性呈现"全域增强-局部弱化"的变化态势,大部地区气候舒适日数增加,其中北方地区舒适日数增幅尤为显著,西北区增幅最大,为4.2d/10a。而华南中部和南部、湖南南部和江西南部部分地区减少,这导致中东部地区舒适日数空间分布"南多北少"的区域差异有所减弱;季节上看,中国7-9月舒适日数呈减少趋势,其他月份均显著增加,各月变化趋势的不一致使得气候舒适性的季节差异逐渐缩小,中国气候舒适日数"夏优冬劣"的强季节差异在向"四季趋衡"的气候舒适型转变。影响因子方面,全国平均气温显著上升(0.3℃/10a),相对湿度和风速显著下降(分别为-0.4%/10a和-0.1m/s/10a)。平均气温变化对舒适日数变化起主导作用(62%),平均风速变化次之(28%),平均相对湿度变化影响最小(10%),因此中国年舒适日数的显著增加主要归因于平均气温的上升。夏季中东部地区舒适日数减少主要受气温和风速的影响,秋季长江以南大部分地区舒适日数的减少受气温、相对湿度和风速的共同影响。

    Abstract:

    Based on the data of daily average temperature, wind speed and relative humidity of 2093 national surface meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2023, this study investigated the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of climate comfort days, as well as the characteristics and relative contributions of influencing factors in China. The results showed that from 1961 to 2023, the national average climate comfort days in China was 186.9 days, showing a significant increasing trend at a rate of 2.9 days per decade, with no apparent interdecadal turning point in the variation of climate comfort days. In terms of spatial distribution, the annual climate comfort days in central and eastern China show a north-to-south increasing trend, with more comfort days occurring in summer and autumn than that in winter and spring. Over the past six decades, an "overall enhancement with localized weakening" pattern was found in climate comfortability over China. Most regions experienced an increase in comfort days, particularly in northern China, where the growth was especially pronounced. The most significant increase occurred in the Northwest region, reaching 4.2 days per decade. However, decreases occurred in central and southern South China and parts of southern Hunan and Jiangxi. This has weakened the spatial distribution difference of comfort days in central and eastern China, which used to be "more in the south and less in the north". Seasonally, the comfort days from July to September in China showed a downward trend, while other months increased significantly. This inconsistent monthly variation led to a gradual reduction in seasonal differences in climate comfort, transforming China's climate comfort pattern from "summer advantage and winter inferiority" to a "increasingly balanced seasonal distribution". Regarding influencing factors, the national average temperature had increased significantly(0.3℃/10a), while the relative humidity and wind speed had decreased significantly (-0.4%/10a and -0.1 m/s/10a, respectively). The change in average temperature plays a dominant role (62%) in the change of comfort days, the change in average wind speed was the second (28%), and the change in average relative humidity had the least impact (10%). Therefore, the significant increase in annual comfort days was mainly attributed to the rise in average temperature. The decrease in comfort days in the central and eastern regions in summer was mainly affected by temperature and wind speed, while the decrease in comfortable days in most areas south of the Yangtze River in autumn was influenced by the combined effects of temperature, relative humidity and wind speed.

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王依然,崔童,邹旭恺,陈鲜艳,李修仓,石帅.1961-2023年中国气候舒适日数变化及其影响因子.生态学报,2026,46(2):1006~1023

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