低碳政策对城市生态效率的影响及优化对策--基于中国286个地级市的实证
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京津冀生态率先突破科技协同创新中心建设运行项目(2024132042)


Spatiotemporal dynamics and optimization strategies of low-carbon policies on eco-efficiency: an empirical study of 286 cities in China
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    摘要:

    在全球气候变化加剧与温室效应持续恶化的背景下,构建低碳城市发展模式已成为缓解气候危机的重要突破口。研究基于2012-2022年全国286个地级市的面板数据,运用考虑非期望产出的超效率SBM模型和空间自相关模型,测度生态效率并刻画其空间关联特征。通过融合静态与动态空间杜宾模型,从时空双维度视角深入剖析低碳政策对生态效率的动态时效性、空间驱动机制及其区域异质性,从而弥补了现有研究在空间溢出效应量化与时滞特征解析方面的空白。研究发现:(1)从时空演变特征来看,样本城市的生态效率总体呈现波动上升趋势,呈现 "东西高-中部凹"梯度差格局,且具有显著的空间集聚效应。(2)低碳政策对生态效率的影响具有"本地增益-邻域抑制"的双重特征,并存在显著的地区异质性。具体而言,低碳政策的积极效应随着城市的经济水平提高而愈发显著。(3)动态空间杜宾模型的实证结果表明,城市生态效率具有显著的"时间滞后"效应,低碳政策对生态效率的长期影响大于短期影响。区域异质性方面,东部地区政策长期效果更突出,而中部地区短期效应更为显著。(4)机制分析发现,绿色技术创新和产业结构升级有助于强化低碳政策对城市生态效率的促进作用且存在显著门槛效应,但对临近城市的促进作用不显著。研究推动低碳政策效应研究范式从"有无效果"向"强度-空间-时序"的多维耦合效应转变,构建了"效率测度-效应识别-机制解析"的完整研究链条。

    Abstract:

    Against the backdrop of intensifying global climate change and worsening greenhouse effects, the development of low-carbon city models has emerged as a critical breakthrough in mitigating the climate crisis. This study utilized panel data from 286 prefecture-level cities in China from 2012 to 2022, employing the super-efficiency SBM model with undesirable outputs and spatial autocorrelation models to measure eco-efficiency and characterize its spatial correlations. By integrating static and dynamic spatial Durbin models, the research delved into the spatial driving mechanisms, dynamic temporal effects, and regional heterogeneity of low-carbon policies on eco-efficiency from a dual spatiotemporal perspective, thereby addressing research gaps in quantifying spatial spillover effects and analyzing time-lagged characteristics. The findings reveal: (1) From the spatiotemporal evolution of eco-efficiency, the overall eco-efficiency of the sampled cities exhibited a fluctuating upward trend from 2012 to 2022, with a distinct "high in the east and west, low in the center" gradient pattern and strong spatial agglomeration effects. (2) The impact of low-carbon policies on ecological efficiency has the dual characteristics of "local gain-neighborhood inhibition", and there is significant regional heterogeneity. Specifically, the positive effects of low-carbon policies become increasingly significant as the economic level of cities improves. (3) The empirical results of the dynamic spatial Durbin model show that urban ecological efficiency has a significant "time lag" effect, and the long-term impact of low-carbon policies on ecological efficiency is greater than the short-term impact. In terms of regional heterogeneity, the long-term impact of low-carbon policies in the eastern region is greater than the short-term impact, while the short-term effect in the central region is more significant. (4) Mechanism analysis reveals that green technological innovation and overall industrial upgrading contribute to strengthening the promoting effect of low-carbon policies on urban ecological efficiency and have a significant threshold effect, but the promoting effect on adjacent cities is not significant. This study has promoted the paradigm shift of the impact of low-carbon policies on ecological efficiency from "presence or absence of effects" to the multi-dimensional coupling effect research of "intensity-space-time series", forming a complete research chain of "efficiency measurement-effect identification-mechanism analysis".

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肖睿珂,刘家睿,嵇雨桐,林添怿,李雄,张云路.低碳政策对城市生态效率的影响及优化对策--基于中国286个地级市的实证.生态学报,2026,46(2):787~804

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