西北区域人工增雨生态修复效益的分离评估和检验
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中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室创新基金项目(2024CPML-B02,2023CPML-B02)


Separation evaluation and Validation of artificial precipitation enhancement benefits on ecological restoration in the northwest China
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    摘要:

    以2018-2022年西北区域生态修复型人工增雨为研究案例,通过对比增雨后真实气候状态(气候变化叠加人工增雨)与增雨前仅受气候变化影响植被生态指标(植被覆盖度、净初级生产力(NPP)、生态质量指数)改善线性趋势率的差值,尽可能降低气候变化自身降水波动在效益评估中的干扰,探索了人工增雨生态修复效益的科学分离和量化评估方法。结果表明:(1)增雨期间(2018-2022年)4-9月植被覆盖度、NPP和生态质量指数区域均值较增雨前五年(2013-2017年)分别增加了1.7%、40.9gC/m2和2.9。(2)增雨给西北区域49.2%土地面积植被覆盖度、35.9%NPP和43.4%植被生态质量带来不同程度的提升和改善。以植被覆盖度为例,增雨期间年平均增量在(0,0.1\]%/a区间的面积占比为30.4%,(0.1,0.2\]%/a区间的面积占比为10.4%,(0.2,0.3\]%/a区间的面积占比为4.6%,年平均增量高于0.3%/a的面积占比为3.8%。(3)祁连山人工增雨对比试验结果显示,作业区植被覆盖度、NPP和生态质量指数呈改善趋势的面积比例较对照区分别偏高13.6%、47.0%和35.8%,该方法可为人工增雨生态效益精细化评估提供新的思路方法和技术参考。

    Abstract:

    Taking the northwest region of China as a case, this study developed separation and quantitative evaluation method to explore ecological restoration benefits from the artificial precipitation projects during 2018-2022. The methodology was conducted by comparing the linear trend rate difference of vegetation indicators (vegetation coverage, net primary productivity NPP, ecological quality index) between baseline climate condition (climate change combined with artificial precipitation) and climate change condition. Results showed that: (1) Compared with those in 2013-2017, the regional average vegetation coverage, NPP, and ecological quality index from April to September during the period of project implementation (2018-2022) increased by 1.7%, 40.9 gC/m2, and 2.9, respectively. (2) The project implementation enhanced vegetation coverage by 49.2%, NPP by 35.9%, and ecological quality index by 43.4% of the land area in the study area. For example, the vegetation coverage with annual average increment in (0,0.1\]%/a was expanded by 30.4%, which was 10.4% for the ranges of (0.1, 0.2\]%/a and 4.6% for the ranges of (0.2, 0.3\]%/a, the areas of annual average increment higher than 0.3%/a were accounted for 3.8%. (3) The ground validation results of the Qilian Mountain artificial rainfall enhancement experiment showed that, the extents of vegetation coverage, NPP, and ecological quality index in the operation areas showed 13.6%, 47.0%, and 35.8% higher than that in the control area, respectively. This method could provide technical support for the fine evaluation of ecological benefits from artificial precipitation projects.

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徐玲玲,段婧,赵运成,陈紫璇,翟薇.西北区域人工增雨生态修复效益的分离评估和检验.生态学报,2026,46(2):822~831

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