大熊猫国家公园卧龙片区大熊猫(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)与放牧家畜活动的时空重叠性分析
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1.首都师范大学;2.四川卧龙国家级自然保护区管理局

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(42171276)


Spatiotemporal Overlap Analysis of Giant Pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) and Grazing Livestock in Wolong area of Giant Panda National Park
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1.Capital Normal University;2.Wolong National Reserve Administration

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    摘要:

    放牧活动已成为目前大熊猫栖息地面临的最常见且迅速扩展的威胁之一,其本质是放牧家畜与大熊猫活动的时空重叠。本研究以大熊猫国家公园卧龙片区为案例,利用物种分布模型和核密度分析方法,探讨了大熊猫与放牧家畜的时空重叠特征,并分析了导致重叠的原因。结果显示:(1)大熊猫与放牧家畜的活动节律重叠度在春季最高(?=0.86),其次是冬季(?=0.74),夏秋季最低(?=0.67)。除夏秋季外,大熊猫与放牧家畜的活动节律不存在显著差异。(2)在空间分布上,大熊猫与放牧家畜的适宜生境具有较高的重叠性(生态位重叠指数D=0.56,I=0.83)。高重叠区域的面积为61.26 km2,主要分布于保护区的东北至东南部,呈斑块状分布。(3)在大熊猫生境预测中,影响因素贡献较大的环境变量依次为距公路的距离、平均温度日较差、距水源的距离以及植被类型;而对于放牧家畜的生境预测,影响较大的环境变量依次为降水量季节性、坡度和植被类型。分析表明,大熊猫与放牧家畜适宜生境重叠的主要原因在于两者生境选择上的相似性,同时放牧家畜适宜生境的环境变量范围较广,通常能覆盖大熊猫适宜生境的环境变量范围。基于此,建议保护区管理局划定并严管放牧缓冲区,采取差时或分区放牧策略,以减少放牧家畜和大熊猫的活动的重叠。研究结果为缓解大熊猫栖息地的放牧干扰提供了重要的科学依据,也为类似保护地的管理提供了参考。

    Abstract:

    Grazing activities have become one of the most common and rapidly expanding threats to giant panda habitats, essentially driven by the spatiotemporal overlap between grazing livestock and panda activities. This study focuses on the Wolong area of Giant Panda National Park as a case study, utilizing species distribution models and kernel density analysis to investigate the spatiotemporal overlap characteristics between giant pandas and grazing livestock, as well as the drivers behind this overlap. The results show that: (1) the overlap in activity rhythms between giant pandas and grazing livestock is highest in spring (?=0.86), followed by winter (?=0.74), and lowest in summer-autumn (?=0.67). Except for summer and autumn, there is no significant difference in activity rhythms between pandas and grazing livestock; (2) spatially, their suitable habitats exhibit a high degree of overlap (niche overlap indices D=0.56, I=0.83). The high?overlap area covers 61.26 km2, mainly distributed in a patchy pattern from the northeast to southeast of the reserve; (3) for panda habitat predictions, the most influential environmental variables are distance to roads, mean diurnal temperature range, distance to water sources, and vegetation type; for grazing livestock habitat predictions, the key variables are precipitation seasonality, slope, and vegetation type. The analysis indicates that the primary reason for habitat overlap is the similarity in habitat selection, while livestock’s broader environmental tolerance generally encompasses the range suitable for pandas. The study highlights the ecological implications of high spatiotemporal overlap, including potential competition for food resources, habitat fragmentation, and stress-related behavioral changes in pandas. The analysis of seasonal activity rhythms further revealed that both biological and anthropogenic factors contribute to overlap variation, with spring being the most critical period due to increased movement and feeding behavior in both species. From a conservation management perspective, the findings stress the importance of targeted spatial planning, such as excluding livestock from core panda habitats dominated by evergreen broad-leaved or coniferous forests. Furthermore, the response curve analysis showed that while pandas are limited to narrower environmental conditions, livestock exhibit a broader ecological niche, increasing the risk of encroachment. These insights contribute to the broader understanding of human–wildlife coexistence and underscore the urgency of integrating ecological data into adaptive management strategies. Ultimately, this study not only provides empirical evidence for refining grazing regulations but also supports policy-making aimed at balancing biodiversity conservation with community livelihoods.

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黄义强,胡强,何廷美,施小刚,李红敏,徐建英.大熊猫国家公园卧龙片区大熊猫(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)与放牧家畜活动的时空重叠性分析.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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