主体功能区战略对区域碳排放格局的影响——川渝地区实证研究
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重庆师范大学

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重庆市自然科学基金(CSTB2023NSCQ-MSX0643);国家社会科学基金(19XGL027)


Impact of the major function-oriented zones strategy on regional carbon emission patterns: a case study of the Sichuan-Chongqing region
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Chongqing Normal University

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    摘要:

    理清主体功能区战略对区域碳格局的驱动效应并解析其“灰箱”传导机理,是构建区域“双碳”政策体系的基础。本文以川渝地区为实证对象,通过双重差分模型、中介模型和空间双重差分模型,解析主体功能区战略的碳排放格局驱动效应及其传导模式。研究发现:(1)2005-2020年川渝地区碳排放总量增长83.0%,增速放缓,呈现“东高西低”,以成渝双核为中心向外递减的稳定格局,碳排放格局与功能定位高度契合;(2)主体功能区战略对区域碳排放格局具有差异化的驱动效应,与功能定位协同性强,城市化地区对碳排放呈显著正向驱动,农产品主产区和重点生态功能区均呈现显著负向驱动;(3)三类功能区具有差异化的政策空间传导机制。城市化地区因人口和产业聚集、城镇扩张等4类政策通道激励效应为正,促进碳排增长,而农产品主产区政策传导通道导向不明晰,但受产业准入和城建抑制引导碳排放趋向收敛,重点生态功能区则通过人口转移、产业限制、城建收缩等五类通道激励效应为负,引导碳累积低速累积或稀释;(4)碳排增量表现出收敛性趋势,碳源中心向成渝双城经济圈中的城市化地区转移,而城市化地区和农产品主产区碳源属性远强于碳汇属性,重点生态功能区普遍呈现碳排稀释趋势;(5)碳排放呈现空间溢出效应,城市化地区激励周边地区的碳排放,而农产品主产区和重点生态功能区抑制邻近区域的碳排放。

    Abstract:

    Clarifying the driving effects of the Major Function-Oriented Zones strategy (MFOZs) on regional carbon emission patterns and deciphering its "gray-box" transmission mechanism served as the basis for constructing a regional "dual-carbon" policy framework. This paper took the Sichuan-Chongqing region as an empirical case, systematically employing the Difference-In-Differences (DID), the Mediation Effect Model (MEM), and the Spatial Difference-In-Differences (SDID) in an integrated approach?to dissect the?Major Function-Oriented Zones strategy's?carbon emission pattern-driving effects?precisely?and?to uncover?its?underlying?transmission modes. The key results showed that: (1) Over the period?from 2005?through?2020, total carbon emissions in the Sichuan-Chongqing region increased by 83.0%, with the growth rate gradually decelerating over time. The spatial pattern remained stable, characterized by "higher emissions in the east and lower in the west," with emission scale decreasing radially outward from the Chengdu-Chongqing dual-core region. This carbon emission distribution pattern closely corresponded with the region’s functional zoning. (2) The Major Function-Oriented Zones strategy exhibited distinctly differentiated driving effects on regional carbon emission patterns, demonstrating a?strong synergy with?the designated?functional orientations. Urbanization Development Zones (UDZs) showed statistically significant positive drivers of carbon emissions, while both Main Agricultural Production Zones (MAPZs) and Key Ecological Function Zones (KEFZs) exhibited statistically?marked negative?driving?effects?on carbon emissions. (3) The three functional zones exhibited differentiated policy spatial transmission mechanisms. Urbanization Development Zones demonstrated positive incentive effects promoting carbon growth through four policy channels including population aggregation, industrial aggregation and urban expansion, which promoted carbon emission growth. In contrast, policy transmission channels in Main Agricultural Production Zones lacked clear direction, yet industrial access restrictions and urban development controls led to a declining trend in carbon emissions. Key ecological functional zones, however, displayed overall negative incentive effects through five key channels such as population relocation, industrial curbs, and urban contraction, thereby resulting in either low-rate carbon accumulation or dilution. (4) Carbon emission increments across the region showed a converging trend, with the core carbon emissions source centers shifting toward Urbanization Development Zones within the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle. Concurrently, Urbanization Development Zones and Main Agricultural Production Zones exhibited carbon source attributes that were?far stronger than?their?carbon sink attributes, while Key Ecological Function Zones generally demonstrated pervasive carbon emission dilution patterns. (5) Spatial spillover effects were evident in the regional carbon emissions. Urbanization Development Zones stimulated carbon emissions in neighboring areas, whereas both Main Agricultural Production Zones and Key Ecological Function Zones exerted suppressed influences?on emissions in adjacent regions.

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李培,汪洋,夏雪,李帆,黄林,张珂宁,赵俊杰,李雨果,蔡骏.主体功能区战略对区域碳排放格局的影响——川渝地区实证研究.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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