生态治理政策对国家重大战略区域生态系统变化的影响——以京津冀地区为例
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湖南省自然科学基金重点项目(2025JJ30032);长沙市自然科学基金项目(kq2502224);国家社会科学基金一般项目(25BJY130);湖南省哲学社会科学基金重点项目(21ZDB024)


The impact of ecological governance policies on ecosystem changes in major strategic regions of the country: take the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as an example
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    摘要:

    政策是顶层设计者协调生态与社会发展关系的关键手段。通过对2013-2023年京津冀政府政策文件进行政策强度评分与文本分析,并以2013-2023年中国土地利用数据为基础对京津冀地区碳储量、生境质量以及生态系统服务价值进行测度,采用PLS-SEM结构模型评估政策对生态系统功能变化的影响路径和影响效果。研究发现:研究期内京津冀地区政策力度呈现出先上升后下降的趋势,并在2021年达到研究期内最大政策强度,得分为419分;2013年总碳储量为2305.88Tg,2023年总碳储量达到2316.66Tg,呈现出持续增加的趋势;生境质量均值呈波动下降趋势,空间分布特征呈现出由西北向四周逐渐降低的态势,生境退化指数呈波动上升趋势,空间分布格局则表现出东南高、北部低的态势;2013年与2023年生态系统服务价值量分别为4014.80亿元与5412.75亿元,总体呈现上升趋势;PLS-SEM模型表明政策实施对研究区生态系统变化产生了显著影响。

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    Policies are the crucial means by which top-level designers coordinate the relationship between the ecological environment and social development.In this study, we conducted policy intensity scoring and text analysis on the government policy documents of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2013 to 2023. Meanwhile, based on the land use data of China from 2013 to 2023, we measured the carbon storage, habitat quality, and the value of ecosystem services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Moreover, we adopted the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to evaluate the impact paths and effects of policies on the changes in ecosystem functions.The research findings are as follows. During the research period, the policy intensity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region first showed an upward trend and then a downward trend. It reached the maximum policy intensity within the research period in 2021, with a score of 419 points. In terms of carbon storage, the total carbon storage in 2013 was 2305.88 Tg, and it reached 2316.66 Tg in 2023, demonstrating a continuous increasing trend. Regarding habitat quality, the average value showed a fluctuating downward trend. Its spatial distribution characteristics indicated a gradual decrease from the northwest to the surrounding areas. The habitat degradation index presented a fluctuating upward trend, and its spatial distribution pattern showed that it was higher in the southeast and lower in the north. As for the value of ecosystem services, it was 4014.80 billion yuan in 2013 and 5412.75 billion yuan in 2023 respectively, generally showing an upward trend. The PLS-SEM model indicated that the implementation of policies had a significant impact on the changes in the ecosystem in the research area.To be specific, the policy intensity changes reflect the different focuses and efforts of the government in different stages. The initial upward trend might be due to the increasing awareness of ecological protection and the need to coordinate regional development, which led to the formulation and strengthening of a series of relevant policies. However, the subsequent decline might be related to the adjustment of the overall policy direction or the completion of some phased goals.The continuous increase in carbon storage is a positive sign for the ecological environment in the region. It implies that the measures taken in aspects such as forest protection and afforestation, as well as land use optimization, have played a certain role in enhancing the carbon sequestration capacity of the ecosystem. On the contrary, the fluctuating downward trend of habitat quality and the rising habitat degradation index indicate that there are still some challenges in maintaining a stable and high-quality habitat environment. It might be affected by factors such as urban expansion, industrial development, and infrastructure construction, which have continuously encroached on the original natural habitats.The increase in the value of ecosystem services further illustrates the improvement of the overall ecological function and its contribution to the economic and social aspects. This also reflects that the policies implemented have had a positive impact on promoting the comprehensive benefits of the ecosystem. In conclusion, through a comprehensive analysis of these aspects, we can more clearly understand the role and impact of policies on the ecological system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which can provide valuable references for future policy formulation and ecological protection work.

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颜建军,熊万灵,刘亦文.生态治理政策对国家重大战略区域生态系统变化的影响——以京津冀地区为例.生态学报,2025,45(23):11491~11505

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