1980—2020年中国热浪的变化特征
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作者单位:

1.中国地质大学(北京);2.长安大学;3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(42301108);中国科协青年人才托举工程项目(07M715BOAM)


Change characteristics of heatwaves in China from 1980 to 2020
Author:
Affiliation:

1.China University of Geosciences Beijing;2.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (42301108),Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program(07M715BOAM)

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    摘要:

    随着全球气候变暖加剧,热浪事件频发对人体健康、生态系统稳定和经济社会可持续发展产生严重影响。目前针对中国热浪的研究仍多集中于整体时空变化特征,而对于不同地理区和干旱梯度下热浪变化规律的认识仍明显不足。本文利用1980—2020年ERA5-Land逐小时2m地表温度数据,采用相对阈值法识别热浪事件,分析热浪的长期变化趋势,定量评估七大地理区域及不同干旱梯度的热浪频率、持续时间及强度特征。结果表明:(1)在1980—2020年间,热浪频率和持续时间呈显著上升趋势;热浪强度增长速率较快但在统计上并不显著。热浪频率和强度总体呈“西北高、中间低、东南高”的空间格局,而热浪持续时间自西南向东北减弱。(2)七大地理区的热浪频率和持续时间均呈显著上升趋势,华南地区的热浪频率和持续时间增长最快,而东北地区增长最慢。热浪强度在华南、华中、华北和西北地区呈显著上升趋势,其中西北地区增长最快。(3)不同干旱梯度的热浪频率和持续时间均呈显著上升趋势,热浪强度在干旱和极端干旱地区呈显著上升趋势。干旱地区热浪发生频率高且持续时间长,而在极端干旱地区,热浪则以强度大为主要特征。相比之下,干旱亚湿润地区呈现出低频率、短历时和弱强度的典型特征。研究结果揭示了气候变暖背景下热浪特征的空间异质性,为准确评估热浪对生态系统和人类社会生活的影响以及开展区域适应性风险管理、制定差异化的热浪防控策略提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    As global warming intensifies, the increased frequency of heatwave events has potentially serious implications for human health, the stability of ecosystems, and the sustainable economic and social development of human societies. Moreover, the majority of existing studies on heatwaves in China has focused primarily on their overall spatial and temporal characteristics. However, our understanding of how heatwaves change across different geographic regions, particularly in relation to drought gradients, is clearly still inadequate. As a result, in this study, we analyzed the hourly 2m surface temperature data from ERA5-Land for the period from 1980 to 2020 to identify heatwave events using the relative threshold method and analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics of the frequency, duration, and intensity characteristics of heatwaves in the seven geographical regions and different aridity zones. The results showed that (1) During the period 1980-2020, there was a significant increase in the frequency and duration of heatwaves. The rate at which heatwave intensity increased was faster, but this was not statistically significant. The characteristics of heatwaves differed significantly between regions. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves show a spatial pattern of "high in the northwest, low in the central, and high in the southeast," while the duration decreases from the southwest to the northeast. (2) The frequency and duration of heatwaves increased significantly in all seven geographical regions, with the fastest growth occurring in South China and the slowest in Northeast China. Meanwhile, heatwave intensity increased significantly in South, Central, North and Northwest China, with the fastest growth occurring in the latter. (3) There were significant differences in the frequency, duration and intensity of heatwaves across the drought gradient. The frequency and duration of heatwaves increase significantly across the drought gradient, while the intensity of heatwaves increases significantly in arid and extreme arid regions. Arid regions experience high frequencies and durations of heatwaves, while extreme arid regions are characterised mainly by high intensity. In contrast, arid sub-humid areas typically have a low frequency and short duration, as well as weak intensity. The results of the study revealed the spatial heterogeneity of heatwave characteristics in the context of climate warming and provided a scientific basis for accurately assessing the multifaceted impacts of heatwaves on ecosystems and human social life and for formulating effective response strategies. In addition, the results offer valuable insights for developing targeted regional risk management approaches and formulating differentiated heatwave prevention and adaptation strategies that address the unique vulnerabilities of each region.

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林梦颖,卫璇,张建军,贾立志,魏芳莉.1980—2020年中国热浪的变化特征.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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