耦合生态系统承灾体的黄河中游洪水风险研究
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1.河南黄河水文勘测规划设计院有限公司;2.郑州大学

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国家重点研发项目(2023YFC320930304);黄委优秀青年人才科技项目 (HQK-202305);河南省优秀青年基金 (252300421195)


Coupled Ecosystem Vulnerability Analysis of Flood Risk in the Middle Yellow River Basin
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1.Henan Yellow River Hydrological Survey, Planning and Design Institute Co., Ltd.;2.Zhengzhou University

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    摘要:

    洪水是全球最具破坏性的自然灾害之一,严重威胁人类社会与经济发展。全面、科学的洪水风险评估是有效防灾减灾的关键,其中承灾体的合理界定与多变量评价体系的构建是提升风险评估精度的核心。本研究以黄河中游为研究区,基于Copula函数构建洪水风险多变量联合分布模型,耦合人类社会与生态系统承灾体,依据IPCC提出的“风险 = 发生概率 × 暴露度 × 脆弱性”框架,引入土壤侵蚀量表征生态系统脆弱性,探讨洪水风险的时空分布特征。结果显示,汾河、沁河、泾河、渭河及伊洛河流域为洪水高风险区域,而研究区中部、西部、北部洪水风险相对较低。北洛河、泾河与汾河流域更易出现洪峰与洪量同时超标的极端情形,洪水风险更为突出。泾河、渭河、汾河流域的洪水风险主要受人口密度和建设水平驱动,而生态系统因植被覆盖率及水土流失状况对风险的影响相对较弱。本研究通过整合人类社会-生态系统承灾体,拓展了洪水风险评估的理论与方法,为区域防洪减灾策略提供了科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Floods represent one of the most destructive natural hazards worldwide, threatening human lives, infrastructure, economic progress, and ecological systems. The impacts of floods have been exacerbated by global climate change and increasing anthropogenic activities, particularly in hydrologically sensitive and ecologically vulnerable regions such as the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin in China. In this context, traditional flood risk assessments—often limited to either human or ecological perspectives—fall short in capturing the multifaceted dynamics of modern flood risk. To address this gap, this study develops a comprehensive flood risk assessment framework that explicitly couples human society and ecosystems as disaster-bearing bodies. The assessment employs a multivariate joint distribution model based on the Copula function to estimate flood occurrence probabilities by integrating peak discharge and flood volume data from 21 hydrological stations. Consistent with the IPCC's risk assessment formula—Risk = Hazard × Exposure × Vulnerability—the framework incorporates both social and ecological indicators. Human exposure and vulnerability indices are constructed using gridded data on population density, GDP, human development index (HDI), built-up land area, and water usage across multiple sectors. Ecosystem exposure is quantified through the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), while ecosystem vulnerability is represented by spatially distributed soil erosion rates, derived using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). The spatial analysis reveals that the Fenhe, Jinghe, Weihe, Qinhe, and Yiluo River basins are flood-prone hotspots, particularly under scenarios where peak flows and volumes exceed design thresholds simultaneously. These areas are characterized by high population density, rapid urban expansion, and pronounced soil degradation, especially in the Loess Plateau. Conversely, upstream and central regions exhibit lower flood risk due to less intense rainfall, reduced anthropogenic pressure, and greater hydrological buffering. Importantly, the study finds that while human exposure is the dominant driver in most areas, ecological vulnerability—particularly soil erosion—plays a critical role in shaping flood response patterns through its influence on runoff generation and sediment dynamics. This integrated approach enriches the theoretical and methodological foundation of flood risk science by addressing the coupled dynamics of human and ecological systems. The framework not only enhances the predictive capacity of risk assessment but also provides actionable insights for policymakers and practitioners involved in flood mitigation, land-use planning, and ecosystem restoration. Ultimately, this study offers a replicable and scalable methodology that can support sustainable water-related disaster governance in complex socio—ecological environments.

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张国栋,王普天,周肖宇,荐圣淇.耦合生态系统承灾体的黄河中游洪水风险研究.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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