耦合多源大数据与随机森林模型的郑州市居民用电碳排放非线性影响
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河南大学地理科学与环境工程学部/黄河中下游数字地理技术教育部重点实验室

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Coupling multi-source data and random forest model for the nonlinear effects of residential electricity carbon emissions in Zhengzhou
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Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering,Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions,Henan University

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The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

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    摘要:

    城市居民用能方式碳效应空间识别与强度分异机制探析是居民生活低碳转型研究的重要内容,对推进人与自然和谐共生的现代化建设具有重要意义。然而,精细尺度居民碳效应评估相对薄弱,居民用能方式碳排放的非线性作用机制还不清楚。因而,文章采用夜间灯光、互联网地图服务、手机信令等多源数据,利用随机森林模型,以郑州市为例,揭示居民用电碳排放的空间异质性特征,探讨建成环境、气候要素与社会经济因子作用下居民用电碳排放的非线性作用规律。结果发现:(1)郑州市主城区居民人均生活用电碳排放为2.07t,空间分布呈中心城区低、外围城区高的特征。碳排放总量的空间分布格局相反,表现出中心城区高、外围城区低的特征。(2)建成环境、气候要素与社会经济对居民用电碳排放变化的贡献依次减弱,贡献度分别为50.07%、26.17%、23.75%。其中,当零售商业设施、基础教育设施密度分别在0—2000个/km2和0—100个/km2范围时,建成环境多样性提高显著增加居民用电碳排放。而当绿地率在0—0.25时,城市绿地对于居民用电碳排放的影响先促进后抑制。(3)居民用电碳排放的影响因素存在显著的空间异质性。地表温度是二环及其以内居民用电碳排放变化的最重要贡献者,两者呈“U”型作用关系。建筑高度是三环及以外居民用电碳排放变化的最重要贡献者,两者呈现正向非线性作用关系。研究成果提高了对城市精细尺度居民用电碳排放的空间认知,揭示了建成环境、气候要素与社会经济因子协同下居民用电碳排放分异特征,为低碳城市、气候韧性城市建设提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    The spatial identification and intensity differentiation mechanism of carbon effect of urban residents 'energy use mode is an important content of the research on the low-carbon transformation of residents 'life, which is of great significance to promote the modernization construction of harmonious coexistence between man and nature. However, the fine-scale assessment of residential carbon effect is relatively weak, and the nonlinear mechanism of carbon emissions from residential energy use is not clear. Therefore, this paper used multi-source data such as night lights, Internet map services, and mobile phone signaling, used the random forest model, took Zhengzhou City as an example, revealed the spatial heterogeneity characteristics of residential electricity carbon emissions, and explored the nonlinear action law of residential electricity carbon emissions under the action of built environment, climate elements and socioeconomic factors. The results show that: (1) the average electric carbon emission of residents in the main urban area of Zhengzhou is 2.07t, and the spatial distribution is low in the central urban area and high in the peripheral urban area. The spatial distribution pattern of total carbon emissions is opposite, showing the characteristics of high in the central urban area and low in the pe-ripheral urban area. (2) The contribution of the built environment, climate factors and social economy to the change of carbon emissions of residential electricity decreased in turn, and the contribution degree was 50.07%, 26.17% and 23.75%, respectively. Among them, when the density of retail and commercial facilities and basic education facilities are in the range of 0-2000 /km2 and 0-100 /km2, respectively, the improvement of built environment diversity significantly increases residential electricity carbon emissions. And when the green land rate is 0-0.25, the impact of urban green space on residential electricity carbon emissions is first promoted and then suppressed. (3) There is significant spatial heterogeneity in the influencing factors of residential electricity carbon emissions. Land surface temperature is the most important contributor to the change of residential electricity carbon emissions in and within the second ring road, and the two have a "U" -shaped relationship. Building height was the most important contributor to the variation of residential electricity carbon emissions at and beyond the third ring road, and the two showed a positive nonlinear relationship. The research results improve the spatial cognition of urban residential carbon emissions at fine scales, reveal the differentiation characteristics of residential carbon emissions under the synergy of built environment, climate factors and socio-economic factors, and provide a scientific basis for the construction of low-carbon cities and climate resilient cities.

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窦朴严,张丽君,秦耀辰,刘秀芳,孔悦.耦合多源大数据与随机森林模型的郑州市居民用电碳排放非线性影响.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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