基于潜在供给与实际使用的生态资产价值评估——以河池市为例
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1.中国科学院生态环境研究中心;2.中国科学院城市环境研究所

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重点研发计划(2022YFF1301802)


Evaluation of ecosystem assets based on potential supply and actual use: a case study in Hechi City
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Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    生态资产是在一定时间、空间范围内和技术经济条件下可以给人们带来效益的生态系统,包括森林、草地、湿地、农田等。生态资产价值评估能够促进生态资产市场化交易,推动经济、生态协同发展。以河池市为例,在评估潜在供给与实际使用的基础上,以潜在供给为实际使用的阈值,预测实际使用的未来流量,进而利用净现值法核算生态资产价值。结果表明,2020年实际使用总值为2129.12亿元,潜在供给总值为6336.23亿元;以2020年为核算基期,河池市生态资产价值为13.61万亿元,环江县、宜州区资产价值最高,分别为1.82万亿元、1.64万亿元;河池市单位面积资产价值为4.06亿元/km2,其中,天峨县单位面积资产价值最高,为4.72亿元/km2;结合潜在供给与实际使用能够降低拟合方式的影响,避免由于潜在供给与实际使用的混淆以及潜在供给的忽视导致的问题,提高生态资产价值核算的准确性。

    Abstract:

    Ecosystem assets refer to ecosystems that can bring benefits to people within specific temporal-spatial ranges and under given technological-economic conditions, including forests, grasslands, wetlands, farmland, etc. Ecosystem assets valuation can facilitate market-oriented transactions of ecosystem assets and promotes synergistic development of economy and ecosystems. The SEEA EA recommends using the net present value (NPV) method to assess ecosystem assets value, which first forecasts the value of ecosystem service flows actually provided to humans each year in the future, then discounts them to the accounting period and aggregates them. However, most studies assume constant future service flows without conducting forecasts when valuing assets. Furthermore, the SEEA EA emphasizes the need to forecast ecosystem service flows actually provided to humans. However, due to accessibility constraints between supply and demand sides and the absence of demand-side beneficiaries, there exists a discrepancy between ecosystem services potentially supplied and actually used by humans, which means the potential supply of ecosystem services does not equate to actual use of ecosystem services. Potential supply refers to an ecosystem's capacity to deliver ecosystem services under current ecosystem conditions, management practices, and utilization patterns, without compromising the maximum production or utilization levels of the same or other services in the future. Actual use denotes the ecosystem services actually used by humans and socio-economic systems within specific temporal-spatial boundaries. Although significant differences exist between potential supply and actual use, existing studies often conflate their measurement indicators, leading to inaccuracies in ecosystem assets valuation. To ensure accurate valuation of ecosystem assets, it is essential to clarify the accounting indicators for potential supply and actual use. Additionally, as ecosystem area, conditions, and management constrain service supply capacity, potential supply should serve as the threshold for actual use during valuation. Therefore, this study takes Hechi City as a case study, assessing both potential supply and actual use, establishing potential supply as the threshold for actual use, forecasting future flows of actual use, and subsequently applying the NPV method to value ecosystem assets. Key findings include: (1) In 2020, the total actual use value reached CNY 212.912 billion, the total potential supply value in 2020 amounted to CNY 633.623 billion; (2) Using 2020 as the baseline accounting period, Hechi City's ecosystem assets value was estimated at CNY 13.61 trillion, with Huanjiang County and Yizhou District showing the highest values at CNY 1.82 trillion and CNY 1.64 trillion respectively; (3) The unit area value of ecosystem assets in Hechi City reached CNY 406 million/km2, with Tian'e County achieving the highest unit area value of CNY 472 million/km2; (4) Integrating potential supply and actual use can reduce methodological biases, avoid issues arising from conflated definitions or oversight of potential supply, and enhance the accuracy of ecosystem assets valuation.

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潘广宇,肖燚,林子雁,刘晏冰,欧阳志云.基于潜在供给与实际使用的生态资产价值评估——以河池市为例.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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