类型识别视角下汾河流域生态系统服务权衡时空分异及非线性驱动特征
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国家自然科学基金(42271292);教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(22YJAZH018)


Spatio-temporal variability and nonlinear driving characteristics of ecosystem services trade-offs from the perspective of type identification in Fenhe River Basin
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    摘要:

    厘清生态系统服务权衡机制对支撑流域生态保护与可持续发展具有重要意义。提出权衡类型识别方法,利用InVEST模型与机器学习等方法,分析了汾河流域2000-2020年固碳、产水与土壤保持服务及其权衡的时空分异与非线性驱动特征。结果表明:① 除平原区外1型固碳-产水服务权衡持续增加但2020年突然下降,山地区2型固碳-产水服务权衡在20年间变化不大,但是平原区、台地区与梁峁区的时间趋势各异。地貌区之间1型土壤保持-产水服务权衡的时间趋势不一致,2型土壤保持-产水服务权衡相对稳定但2020年大幅增加。② 2000-2015年1型固碳-产水服务权衡的空间范围逐渐扩大但2型权衡相对萎缩,该趋势于2020年逆转。2000-2015年1型和2型土壤保持-产水权衡分布位置相对稳定,但2020年演变为2型权衡处于主导的空间格局。③ 土地利用、降水、坡度等因素对1型或2型权衡的影响均存在阈值效应。林地与降水、建设用地与降水、耕地与坡度之间的交互效应往往存在明显的趋势特征,交互效应散点图提供了丰富的双因子驱动特征信息,对指导不同气候资源及地形条件下的土地利用配置具有参考价值。本研究为权衡机制这类"黑箱"系统提供了更丰富的观察视角,有望更全面的支撑生态保护修复实践。

    Abstract:

    The Fenhe River Basin is a critical ecological zone in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, which has been featured by both fragile ecosystem and intensive human activities. It is of great significance to clarify the trade-off mechanism of ecosystem services (ESs) to support the ecological protection and sustainable development. This study innovatively categorized the types of ESs trade-off based on comparative advantages, and investigated the spatio-temporal patterns and nonlinear drivers of trade-offs among carbon sequestration (CAS), water yield (WAY), and soil conservation (SOC) from 2000 to 2020 through Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model as well as Random Forest model and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP). The results showed that: (1) CAS and SOC showed a continuous increasing trend from 2000 to 2020, while WAY decreased slightly before a significant increase in 2020. Type 1 CAS-WAY trade-offs exhibited a steady rise across most regions except the plain area, where they suddenly decreased in 2020. Type 2 CAS-WAY trade-offs in mountain area remained relatively stable over two decades, though temporal trends varied among the plain, platform, and hilly areas. The temporal trend of the type 1 CAS-SOC trade-offs differed across geomorphological zones, while the type 2 CAS-SOC trade-offs were stable but experienced a sharp increase in 2020. (2) From 2000 to 2015, the spatial extent of type 1 CAS-WAY trade-offs gradually expanded, whereas type 2 trade-offs underwent a relative contraction, this trend then reversed in 2020. The spatial distribution of both type 1 and type 2 CAS-SOC trade-offs were stable from 2000 to 2015 but shifted into a spatial pattern where type 2 trade-offs dominated in 2020. (3) Factors such as land use, precipitation, slope gradient, temperature exhibited threshold effects on both type 1 and type 2 trade-offs, which were the results of the comprehensive interactions among multiple factors. The interaction effects between forest cover and precipitation, construction land and precipitation, cropland and slope gradient showed distinct trends. For example, at a lower forest cover proportion, even with lower precipitation, the trade-off of type 1 CAS-WAY can still be mitigated. As the forest cover proportion increased, the interaction effect exhibited two distinct patterns: below 700 mm of precipitation, the trade-off was enhanced, while above 700 mm of precipitation, the trade-off was declined. The interaction effects offered critical insights for guiding land use allocation strategies under diverse climatic and topographic conditions. This study enriches the understanding of the "black box" trade-off mechanism, and is expected to comprehensively support the practice of ecological protection and restoration.

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冯强,赵文武,王晶,段宝玲.类型识别视角下汾河流域生态系统服务权衡时空分异及非线性驱动特征.生态学报,2025,45(16):7921~7937

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