北半球温带植被春季物候对前一年气候的直接与间接响应
作者:
作者单位:

1.华东师范大学地理科学学院;2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Direct and Indirect Responses of Temperate Vegetation Spring Phenology to the Previous Year"s Climate in the Northern Hemisphere
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Geographical Science,East China Normal University;2.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

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    摘要:

    在全球气候变化的背景下,北半球温带植被春季物候广泛提前,这一现象已被证实与前一年的气候变化密切相关。此外,前一年气候变暖延长了温带植被的生长季以及促进了净光合速率,进而增加了植被净初级生产力,从而间接导致次年春季物候的提前。然而,前一年气候对次年春季物候的直接影响和间接影响的相对强度尚不明确。因此,基于北半球温带植被多年春季物候数据(Start of Growing Season, SOS)、净初级生产力数据(Net Primary Productivity, NPP)和气象数据,结合偏相关分析、结构方程模型等方法,探究前一年生长季气候对北半球温带植被春季物候的直接影响,以及通过植被生产力变化对次年春季物候的间接影响强度并进行比较。研究发现:(1)北半球温带植被生长季长度对植被NPP的影响作用最强,在超过50%的区域上对NPP变化起主导作用。(2)1983—2014年间,北半球温带植被SOS平均以每10年1.6d的速度提前。季前温度对SOS的解释强度最大,平均能解释52.5%的SOS变化,前一年NPP对SOS的解释强度能达到其17%—50%,与次年春季降水和辐射的解释强度相当。(3)前一年生长季气候不仅能通过NPP对次年SOS产生间接影响,解释了10.5%的SOS变化,也直接影响了次年SOS,解释了19.7%的SOS变化,直接影响强度相当于间接影响的两倍。这些结果强调了前一年气候变化与植被生产力对次年春季物候的影响的重要性,为未来准确预测春季物候提供了参考。

    Abstract:

    In the context of global climate change, the widespread advance of spring phenology in temperate vegetation of the Northern Hemisphere has been shown to be closely related to climate change in the previous year. Moreover, the previous year"s warming climate has been shown to extend the growing season of temperate vegetation and enhance net photosynthetic rates, thereby increasing net primary productivity (NPP) and indirectly leading to the advancement of spring phenology in the subsequent year. However, the relative intensity of the direct and indirect impacts of the previous year"s climate on the subsequent spring phenology remains unclear. This study utilized long-term datasets on the start of the growing season (SOS), NPP, and meteorological variables for temperate vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere. By employing partial correlation analysis and structural equation modeling, we investigated both the direct influence of the previous year’s growing season climate on SOS and its indirect effects mediated through changes in vegetation productivity. The findings revealed that: (1) The length of the growing season played a predominant role in influencing vegetation NPP, being the dominant factor of NPP changes in over 50% of the areas studied. (2) Over the period from 1983 to 2014, the SOS of temperate vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere advanced at an average rate of 1.6 days per decade. Pre-season temperature had the greatest explanatory power for SOS, accounting for an average of 52.5% of its variation. The explanatory power of the previous year’s NPP on SOS ranged from 17% to 50%, comparable to that of spring precipitation and radiation in the subsequent year. (3) The previous year"s growing season climate not only indirectly influenced the subsequent SOS through NPP changes, accounting for 10.5% of the SOS variation, but also directly impacted the SOS in the subsequent year, explaining 19.7% of its variation. The direct impact was twice that of the indirect effect. These results highlight the significance of the previous year"s climate change and vegetation productivity on subsequent spring phenology, providing valuable insights for future accurate predictions of spring phenological events.

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陈一鸣,张 琪,程婉莹,丛 楠,梁航琪,赵红芳.北半球温带植被春季物候对前一年气候的直接与间接响应.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/10.5846/stxb202501100084

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