面向碳达峰碳中和与共同富裕的中国省域可持续发展评估
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1.浙江大学公共管理学院;2.浙江生态文明研究院;3.湖州市人民政府

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基金项目:

国家社科基金重大项目(22&ZD108,24VRC079);国家自然科学基金项目(72074193,42341205)


Sustainable development assessment of Chinese provinces towards peak and net-zero carbon emissions and common prosperity
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Affiliation:

1.School of Public Affairs Zhejiang University;2.Zhejiang Ecological Civilization Academy;3.SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY

Fund Project:

The Major Project of National Social Science Fund of China (22&ZD108, 24VRC079); The National Natural Science Foundation of China (72074193, 42341205)

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    摘要:

    摘要:推进可持续发展本土化评估在国家和地方层面均具有重大意义。将联合国可持续发展议程的目标要求与中国式现代化的特征任务相结合,提出将碳达峰碳中和与共同富裕纳入可持续发展评估的改进思路,进而构建涵盖经济高质量发展、社会民生改善、富裕均衡共享、绿色低碳转型和生态环境治理5大维度48项指标的评估体系,据此对2013—2022年中国31个省域的可持续发展水平进行测度。研究结果表明:(1)中国省域综合可持续发展水平持续提升,并呈由东南向西北递减的阶梯式分布格局;(2)省域间综合可持续发展水平极化现象加剧,高-高集聚和低-低集聚的省域数量均有所增加,分别分布在“胡焕庸线”的东南半壁和西北半壁;(3)省域可持续发展5大维度均呈改善态势,其中经济高质量发展、社会民生改善和富裕均衡共享在空间上呈东高西低的分布格局,而绿色低碳转型和生态环境治理则呈南高北低的分布格局;(4)省域可持续发展5大维度间的耦合协调度虽有所上升,但整体协调水平依然较低,西北地区的维度间发展失衡问题尤为突出;(5)碳达峰碳中和与共同富裕的推进均对省域可持续发展水平排名产生影响,其中碳达峰碳中的权衡效应尤为明显。本研究通过引入碳达峰碳中和与共同富裕,探索完善针对中国式现代化的可持续发展本土化评估方法,评估结果更具针对性、交互性、灵活性和均衡性,可以为揭示我国省域可持续发展的时空演变规律提供科学参考。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: Advancing the localization of sustainable development assessment is significant both globally and locally. By aligning the goals of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Agenda with the tasks of Chinese-style Modernization, this study proposes an evaluation index system that incorporates peak and net-zero carbon emissions and common prosperity into sustainable development assessment. It encompasses five key dimensions of sustainability: high-quality economic growth, social well-being improvement, equitable sharing of prosperity, green and low-carbon transition, and environmental governance, including 48 specific indicators. Using this evaluation index system, we evaluate the progress of sustainable development in 31 Chinese provinces from 2013 to 2022, with a particular focus on the spatial correlations and dimensional coupling coordination of provincial sustainability, examine the impacts of efforts towards peak and net-zero emissions and common prosperity on provincial sustainability, validate the scientific rigor of our evaluation index system, and discuss the limitations of this study and potential solutions. The results show that: (1) Provincial sustainability has continued to improve by 1.50% annually on average, exhibiting a distinct spatial gradient from southeast to northwest China; (2) The spatial positive correlation of provincial sustainability has gradually strengthened, accompanied by an intensification of spatial polarization. This polarization is characterized by increasing number of high-high and low-low clusters concentrated within the southeast and northwest of the Hu Line, respectively; (3) Provincial performance across all the five dimensions has improved, with the dimensions of high-quality economic growth, social well-being improvement, and equitable sharing of prosperity experience an east-to-west spatial gradient, while the dimensions of green and low-carbon transition and environmental governance follow a south-to-north spatial gradient; (4) Despite improvements in the coupling coordination among the five dimensions, it remains at a relatively low level in 22 provinces, especially in the northwestern regions, where disparities between environmental governance and high-quality economic growth are particularly pronounced; and (5) Efforts towards peak and net-zero emissions and common prosperity both have affected the provincial sustainability, particularly the former through trade-offs that result in a decline in the sustainable development rankings of ten provinces, with an average drop of four positions. By integrating peak and net-zero carbon emissions and common prosperity to improve a localized assessment methodology for sustainable development in the context of Chinese-style modernization, our findings are more targeted, interactive, flexible and balanced and therefore offering valuable insights into the spatio-temporal variations in sustainable development at the provincial level.

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方恺,雷毅菲,李程琳,罗明强,席继轩,李若瑜.面向碳达峰碳中和与共同富裕的中国省域可持续发展评估.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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