基于稳健地理探测器的滨湖农田土壤有机碳影响因子分析——以江苏沛县为例
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作者单位:

1.中国矿业大学;2.首都经济贸易大学

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Analysis of Factors Influencing Soil Organic Carbon in Lakeside Farmland Based on Robust Geographical Detector: A Case Study of Pei County, Jiangsu Province
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Affiliation:

1.China University of Mining and Technology;2.Capital Universitv of Economics and Business

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

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    摘要:

    滨湖农田区土壤肥沃且有机碳含量高,是推动农业固碳减排和应对气候变化的关键着力点。准确识别滨湖农田土壤有机碳(Soil organic carbon,SOC)的主控因子对提高土壤肥力和实现农业可持续发展至关重要。地理探测器模型是识别影响因子及其交互作用的有效工具,但常用的最优参数地理探测器方法(Optimal parameter geographical detector,OPGD)难以稳定获得自变量的最优离散化结果,限制了自变量的解释力。因此,本研究构建了基于方差变化点检测的稳健地理探测器模型(Robust geographical detector,RGD),以徐州市沛县滨湖农田为研究对象,探究自然要素、人类活动及其交互效应对SOC的影响。结果表明:(1)RGD在各变量的运算速度、数据离散化效果和解释力方面均优于OPGD;(2)RGD结果显示气候因子、到微山湖距离、地形因子和农田土地利用类型是研究区SOC的主要影响因子;(3)东部近湖区水田SOC含量显著高于西部旱地,且SOC随湖距增加衰减,在18.8 km处接近稳定,该临界距离与水旱田分界线在空间上耦合,揭示了湖泊通过调控种植和灌溉模式主导SOC格局;(4)环境变量间普遍存在非线性增强或双因子增强型交互效应,其中年均降水量与年均最低气温的交互效应q值最高,达到0.536,进一步研究显示高降水量和高年均最低气温有利于SOC积累。本研究证实了RGD模型的优越性,也为其他滨湖农田区土壤属性主控因子分析研究提供了参考。

    Abstract:

    Lakeside soil organic carbon (SOC) serves as a critical indicator for assessing cropland quality and soil carbon sequestration potential. Lakeside farmlands, shaped by unique water-land interactions, often form high-density organic carbon reservoirs, making them pivotal zones for enhancing agricultural carbon sequestration and addressing climate change. Therefore, accurately identifying the dominant drivers of SOC in lakeside farmlands is essential for improving soil fertility and achieving sustainable agricultural development. The geographical detector model is an effective tool for identifying influencing factors and their interactions. However, the commonly used optimal parameter geographical detector (OPGD) requires traversing five discrete methods, leading to computational inefficiency and instability in obtaining optimal discretization results, which limits the explanatory power of variables. To address this, this study developed a robust geographical detector (RGD) based on variance change point detection. Taking the lakeside farmland in Pei County, Xuzhou City, as a case study, the impacts of natural factors, human activities, and their interactions on SOC were systematically investigated. The results demonstrated that: (1) RGD outperformed OPGD in computational speed, data discretization effectiveness, and explanatory power. (2) Key drivers identified by RGD included mean annual precipitation, mean annual minimum temperature, distance to Weishan Lake, elevation, and farmland land use types. They could explain 44.5%, 43.3%, 37.8%, 23.4%, and 23.2% of SOC variation, respectively. (3) SOC content in eastern paddy fields near the lake was significantly higher than that in western drylands, with mean values of 6.82 g/kg versus 6.22 g/kg. The spatial pattern indicated that SOC decreased with increasing distance from the lake and stabilized beyond 18.8 km, a critical threshold spatially aligned with the boundary between paddy and dryland fields. This highlights the dominant role of lake-regulated planting and irrigation patterns in shaping SOC distribution. (4) Nonlinear-enhancement or bi- enhancement interactions were prevalent among influencing factors, indicating that SOC dynamics are driven by complex synergies rather than simple additive effects. The interaction between mean annual precipitation and mean annual minimum temperature exhibited the highest q-value (0.536). Further analysis revealed that high mean annual precipitation combined with elevated mean annual minimum temperatures significantly promoted SOC accumulation. This study validated the superiority of the RGD model and provides a reference for analyzing dominant drivers of soil attributes in other lakeside farmlands. Future research will integrate more hydrological factors (e.g., lake water level fluctuations) and agricultural management practices (e.g., fertilization amount and cultivation method) to further unravel the spatial heterogeneity of SOC in these regions.

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吴子豪,樊德昊,包鑫宇,闫庆武,张杨.基于稳健地理探测器的滨湖农田土壤有机碳影响因子分析——以江苏沛县为例.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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